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Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability

Data up to Jan 2025

Published2002
Citations699
References1468

Total Citations Per Year

Abstract

References (1468)

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Image Theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational Contexts.

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Risk Premiums for Decision Regret

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Repetition and Memory

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Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts

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Security Analyst Multi-Year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market

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1983 • 335 citations

On the subjective probability of compound events

1973 • 335 citations

Nuclear learning and U.S.–Soviet security regimes

1987 • 334 citations

Egocentric empathy gaps between owners and buyers: Misperceptions of the endowment effect.

2000 • 333 citations

When a 12.86% mortality is more dangerous than 24.14%: implications for risk communication

1997 • 332 citations

Equality as a decision heuristic

1993 • 332 citations

Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments

1982 • 331 citations

The effects of severity of initiation on liking for a group: A replication

1966 • 329 citations

Measures and models of perceived group variability.

1990 • 329 citations

Facial expressions and the regulation of emotions.

1990 • 326 citations

The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items

1994 • 324 citations

Diagnosticians vs. diagnostic signs: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI.

1965 • 324 citations

Decisions under Time Pressure: How Time Constraint Affects Risky Decision Making

1997 • 324 citations

Subliminal Affective Priming Resists Attributional Interventions

1997 • 323 citations

Effects of Procedural and Outcome Accountability on Judgment Quality

1996 • 322 citations

Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism

1982 • 321 citations

Incorrigibility as the Mark of the Mental

1970 • 321 citations

Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

1981 • 320 citations

Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments.

1995 • 320 citations

The disparity between the actual and assumed power of self-interest.

1998 • 320 citations

Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation

1986 • 320 citations

Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study

1987 • 319 citations

Combining experiences over time: the effects of duration, intensity changes and on-line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations

1998 • 318 citations

Family resemblance in attitudes to foods.

1984 • 318 citations

Freedom and Reactance. By Robert A. Wicklund. (Potomac, Md.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1974. Pp. 205. $10.95.)

1977 • 317 citations

Barriers to Conflict Resolution

1991 • 317 citations

Reality Negotiation: From Excuses to Hope and Beyond

1989 • 316 citations

The Role of Perspective-Taking Ability in Negotiating under Different Forms of Arbitration

1983 • 315 citations

Commitment in an experimenting society: A study of the attribution of leadership from administrative scenarios.

1980 • 315 citations

MATCHING BIAS IN THE SELECTION TASK

1973 • 315 citations

Social explanation and social expectation: Effects of real and hypothetical explanations on subjective likelihood.

1977 • 314 citations

When shall we use our heads instead of the formula?

1957 • 314 citations

On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy?

1979 • 313 citations

Likeness and Likelihood in Everyday Thought: Magical Thinking in Judgments About Personality [and Comments and Reply]

1977 • 313 citations

Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments

1982 • 313 citations

Probability Forecasting in Meteorology

1984 • 313 citations

Category accessibility: Some theoretical and empirical issues concerning the processing of social stimulus information

1981 • 312 citations

Increasing voting behavior by asking people if they expect to vote.

1987 • 311 citations

On the Social Psychology of Agency Relationships: Lay Theories of Motivation Overemphasize Extrinsic Incentives

1999 • 311 citations

Accuracy of smokers' risk perceptions

1998 • 309 citations

The Limits of Scientific Reasoning

1986 • 308 citations

The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments

1994 • 308 citations

Mapping part-whole hierarchies into connectionist networks

1990 • 308 citations

Flexible Correction Processes in Social Judgment: Correcting for Context-Induced Contrast

1993 • 307 citations

The domain specificity and generality of belief bias: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill.

1999 • 306 citations

Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking

1976 • 305 citations

Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors

1949 • 305 citations

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

1996 • 304 citations

Fear appeals and attitude change: Effects of a threat's noxiousness, probability of occurrence, and the efficacy of coping responses.

1976 • 304 citations

Untitled

1998 • 303 citations

Decision Sciences

1993 • 302 citations

An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions

1986 • 302 citations

Actors, observers, and the attribution process

1977 • 302 citations

Perceived Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada

1991 • 302 citations

The Easy Path From Many To Much: the Numerosity Heuristic

1994 • 301 citations

Evaluation of evidence in causal inference.

1981 • 301 citations

Meta-analysis: a review.

1991 • 300 citations

The overconfidence effect in social prediction.

1990 • 300 citations

Article Commentary: Judgment and Decision Making: A Personal View

1991 • 300 citations

Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.

1983 • 299 citations

Justification and the Psychology of Human Reasoning

1980 • 297 citations

Testing for Regret and Disappointment in Choice Under Uncertainty

1987 • 296 citations

A critique of expected utility theory: Descriptive and normative considerations

1975 • 294 citations

Nonlinear Decision Weights in Choice Under Uncertainty

1999 • 293 citations

The Content of Our Categories: A Cognitive Bias Approach to Discrimination and Equal Employment Opportunity

1995 • 293 citations

Constructing Perceptions of Vulnerability: Personal Relevance and the Use of Experiential Information in Health Judgments

1998 • 293 citations

Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.

1983 • 292 citations

Bringing the models together: An empirical approach to combining variables used to explain health actions

1980 • 291 citations

The relative accuracy of self-predictions and judgments by others in psychological assessment.

1981 • 291 citations

Imagery, Affect, and Financial Judgment

2000 • 288 citations

From individual to group impressions: Availability heuristics in stereotype formation

1978 • 287 citations

Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem

1983 • 287 citations

A note on prototype theory and fuzzy sets

1982 • 287 citations

General Knowledge Overconfidence: Cross-National Variations, Response Style, and “Reality”

1997 • 286 citations

Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships.

1984 • 285 citations

Judging Risk and Return of Financial Assets

2000 • 285 citations

Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts

1992 • 285 citations

The verification of sentences: The effects of delay of evidence and sentence length

1966 • 284 citations

Need for Cognition and Choice Framing Effects

1996 • 283 citations

Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.

1982 • 283 citations

Self-concept change and self-presentation: The looking glass self is also a magnifying glass.

1992 • 283 citations

Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics

1981 • 282 citations

Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes

1953 • 282 citations

Stability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives

1956 • 281 citations

The Framing of Decisions: A New Look at Old Problems

1995 • 281 citations

Getting what you want by revising what you had.

1984 • 280 citations

Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won.

1990 • 279 citations

Cognitive processes in preference reversals

1989 • 278 citations

Professional Expectations: Accuracy and Diagnosis of Errors

1984 • 277 citations

Empathy and attribution: Turning observers into actors.

1975 • 277 citations

The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility

1979 • 277 citations

The More You Ask For, the More You Get: Anchoring in Personal Injury Verdicts

1996 • 275 citations

Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation

1986 • 273 citations

Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable

1938 • 273 citations

Not can, but will college teaching be improved?

1977 • 272 citations

Positive and Negative Life Changes Following Bereavement and their Relations to Adjustment

1993 • 272 citations

Knowledge Maps

1989 • 271 citations

The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors

1992 • 270 citations

Thinking backward: Some curable and incurable consequences of cognitive busyness.

1989 • 270 citations

Choice processing in emotionally difficult decisions.

1997 • 270 citations

THE RELEVANCE OF QUASI RATIONALITY IN COMPETITIVE MARKETS

1988 • 270 citations

Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life

1990 • 270 citations

The development of children's knowledge about the appearance–reality distinction.

1986 • 269 citations

How Buyers Evaluate Product Bundles: A Model of Anchoring and Adjustment

1994 • 267 citations

Does the Temporal Stability of Behavioral Intentions Moderate Intention-Behavior and Past Behavior-Future Behavior Relations?

1999 • 265 citations

Of thoughts unspoken: Social inference and the self-regulation of behavior.

1988 • 265 citations

Interactional biases in human thinking

1995 • 265 citations

Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims

1994 • 265 citations

The Illusory Transparency of Intention: Linguistic Perspective Taking in Text

1994 • 264 citations

Elastic Justification: How Unjustifiable Factors Influence Judgments

1996 • 263 citations

Forecasting with scenarios

1993 • 263 citations

Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy

1991 • 263 citations

On being cool and collected: Mood regulation in anticipation of social interaction.

1996 • 263 citations

Nonconsequentialist decisions

1994 • 261 citations

On the functional equivalence of literal and metaphorical interpretations in discourse

1989 • 261 citations

Testing for juxtaposition and event-splitting effects

1993 • 260 citations

Comparing Is Believing: A Selective Accessibility Model of Judgmental Anchoring

1999 • 260 citations

Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.

1988 • 260 citations

The effects of intended audience on message production and comprehension: Reference in a common ground framework

1989 • 259 citations

Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others.

1990 • 259 citations

Enhancement Bias in Descriptions of Self and Others

1998 • 258 citations

Base Rates, Representativeness, and the Logic of Conversation: The Contextual Relevance of “Irrelevant” Information

1991 • 258 citations

Irrational reactions to negative outcomes: Evidence for two conceptual systems.

1992 • 258 citations

The Role of Motivated Reasoning in Optimistic Time Predictions

1997 • 258 citations

Analyst Forecasting Errors and Their Implications for Security Analysis

1995 • 258 citations

Epistemics: The Regulative Theory of Cognition

1978 • 257 citations

Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility.

1983 • 256 citations

Rational explanation of the selection task.

1996 • 256 citations

Effects of strategic self-presentation on subsequent self-esteem.

1981 • 256 citations

Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness.

1982 • 256 citations

Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

1972 • 255 citations

Bias in Utility Assessments: Further Evidence and Explanations

1989 • 254 citations

Adult Egocentrism: Subjective Experience versus Analytic Bases for Judgment

1996 • 254 citations

The availability bias in social perception and interaction

1982 • 253 citations

Intuitions of the Transparency of Idioms: Can One Keep a Secret by Spilling the Beans?

1995 • 253 citations

The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond

1981 • 252 citations

The Influence of Attributions on the Relevance of Negative Feelings to Personal Satisfaction

1993 • 252 citations

Social Decision Heuristics in the Use of Shared Resources

1990 • 251 citations

Controlling software projects : management, measurement & estimation

1982 • 251 citations

Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment*

1985 • 251 citations

Cognitive Ability and Variation in Selection Task Performance

1998 • 250 citations

Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts

1998 • 250 citations

Food, Sex, and Pollution: A New Guinea Religion.

1985 • 248 citations

Additive representations of non-additive measures and the choquet integral

1994 • 248 citations

Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting

1981 • 248 citations

The Effect of Sexual Arousal on Expectations of Sexual Forcefulness

1997 • 247 citations

Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events

2000 • 247 citations

Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?

1998 • 245 citations

Thinking the Unthinkable: The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear War1

1989 • 244 citations

Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment

1989 • 244 citations

Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance

1992 • 243 citations

Elastic Justification: How Tempting but Task-Irrelevant Factors Influence Decisions

1995 • 243 citations

Gradedness and conceptual combination

1982 • 243 citations

Does the Grist Change the Mill? The Effect of the Perceiver's Inferential Goal on the Process of Social Inference

1993 • 243 citations

Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure

1996 • 242 citations

Towards a Psychology of Food and Eating: From Motivation to Module to Model to Marker, Morality, Meaning, and Metaphor

1996 • 242 citations

When every relationship is above average: Perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage.

1993 • 242 citations

The Egocentric Basis of Language Use

1998 • 242 citations

Moral Overtones of Food: Judgments of Others Based on What they Eat

1995 • 242 citations

Achieving patient compliance

1982 • 241 citations

Categorical Inference Is Not a Tree: The Myth of Inheritance Hierarchies

1998 • 241 citations

Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments

1993 • 240 citations

Self‐Favoring Biases, Self‐Presentation, and the Self‐Other Asymmetry in Social Comparison

1995 • 240 citations

Experience and the base-rate fallacy

1982 • 240 citations

THE MULTIPLICITY OF THOUGHT*

1963 • 239 citations

Temporal order and the perceived mutability of events: Implications for blame assignment.

1990 • 238 citations

Feeling "holier than thou": Are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction?

2000 • 238 citations

Base rates can affect individual predictions.

1980 • 238 citations

HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL

1978 • 237 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers

1984 • 236 citations

Confidence in judgment

1997 • 236 citations

Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference

1966 • 235 citations

Probable Values of the General Physical Constants

1929 • 235 citations

Absolute and Relative Biases in Estimations of Personal Risk1

1996 • 234 citations

Structuring decision problems and the ‘bias heuristic’

1982 • 233 citations

Individual Differences in Framing and Conjunction Effects

1998 • 233 citations

Face-saving and entrapment

1981 • 233 citations

No one in my group can be below the group's average: A robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers.

1997 • 233 citations

Elastic shifts of opinion: Determinants of direction and durability.

1976 • 233 citations

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

1987 • 232 citations

Testing the Internal Consistency of Contingent Valuation Surveys

1996 • 232 citations

Preference trees.

1979 • 232 citations

Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs

1983 • 231 citations

Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty.

1998 • 231 citations

Least-Squares Adjustment of the Atomic Constants, 1952

1953 • 231 citations

Physician and Medical Student Bias in Evaluating Diagnostic Information

1981 • 231 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

Analysis of Variance of the 1952 Data on the Atomic Constants and a New Adjustment, 1955

1955 • 230 citations

THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*

1951 • 229 citations

Untitled

1999 • 229 citations

A network approach to mental multiplication.

1982 • 229 citations

The cognitive dynamics of salience in the attribution process.

1977 • 228 citations

Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights

1996 • 228 citations

The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?

1991 • 228 citations

Information framing effects in social and personal decisions

1988 • 228 citations

The effect of choosing on confidence in choice

1990 • 228 citations

Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting.

1981 • 227 citations

Craps and Magic

1967 • 226 citations

Rational belief

1983 • 225 citations

Role of specific similarity in a medical diagnostic task.

1991 • 225 citations

The use of category and exemplar knowledge in the solution of anchoring tasks.

2000 • 225 citations

Are Most People Happier than their Peers, or Are They Just Happy?

1999 • 224 citations

Incorporating general intelligence into epidemiology and the social sciences

1997 • 224 citations

Taking Behavioralism Seriously: Some Evidence of Market Manipulation

1999 • 223 citations

Depression and pessimism for the future: Biased use of statistically relevant information in predictions for self versus others.

1987 • 223 citations

Regret, recrimination and rationality

1985 • 223 citations

Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question form

2001 • 222 citations

Effect of temporal perspective on subjective confidence.

1993 • 222 citations

Exposition Effects on Decision Making: Choice and Confidence in Choice

1997 • 221 citations

Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution

1982 • 221 citations

Mood-Related Persuasion Depends on (Mis)Attributions

1994 • 221 citations

A Positive Psychological Theory of Judging in Hindsight

1998 • 220 citations

Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role of selection and training.

1982 • 220 citations

Evidence for the Innateness of Deontic Reasoning

1996 • 220 citations

The Makings of the Magical Mind: The Nature and Function of Sympathetic Magical Thinking

2000 • 220 citations

The Role of Affective Expectations in Subjective Experience and Decision-Making

1994 • 219 citations

Commission, Omission, and Dissonance Reduction: Coping with Regret in the "Monty Hall" Problem

1995 • 218 citations

Operation of the sympathetic magical law of contagion in interpersonal attitudes among Americans

1989 • 218 citations

Coping with irrevocable loss.

1987 • 218 citations

Counterfactual Thinking and Social Perception: Thinking about What Might Have Been

1990 • 217 citations

Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?

1998 • 217 citations

Determinants of the remembered utility of aversive sounds.

2000 • 217 citations

Perceived Risk of AIDS: Assessing the Behavioral and Psychosocial Consequences in a Cohort of Gay Men1

1987 • 216 citations

Discrepancies Between Normative and Descriptive Models of Decision Making and the Understanding/Acceptance Principle

1999 • 215 citations

Dinosaur in a Haystack

1995 • 214 citations

How to show that 9 > 221: Collect judgments in a between-subjects design.

1999 • 214 citations

Rationality: a philosophical inquiry into the nature and the rationale of reason

1989 • 214 citations

A Catalog of Risks

1979 • 214 citations

Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems

2000 • 213 citations

General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models

1981 • 212 citations

Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance.

1985 • 212 citations

Good patterns have few alternatives.

1970 • 212 citations

Cognitive Load and the Equality Heuristic: A Two-Stage Model of Resource Overconsumption in Small Groups

2000 • 212 citations

Probability Judgment in Medicine

1995 • 212 citations

What Risks Are People Concerned About

1991 • 211 citations

Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues.

1965 • 211 citations

Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States

1989 • 210 citations

Developing an intuitive understanding of conservation and contamination: Invisible particles as a plausible mechanism.

1993 • 210 citations

Definite Reference and Mutual Knowledge: Process Models of Common Ground in Comprehension

1998 • 209 citations

Untitled

1997 • 209 citations

Coming to terms with major negative life events.

1989 • 209 citations

Forming Judgments of Attitude Certainty, Intensity, and Importance: The Role of Subjective Experiences

1999 • 208 citations

Social explanation: The role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates.

1983 • 207 citations

Social categorization and the truly false consensus effect.

1993 • 207 citations

Name stereotypes and teachers' expectations.

1973 • 206 citations

Influence of Elaboration on the Framing of Decision

1994 • 205 citations

Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information.

1962 • 205 citations

Untitled

2000 • 205 citations

HUMAN ABILITIES

1998 • 204 citations

Context, categorization, and recall: The “change-of-standard” effect

1983 • 203 citations

Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis

1991 • 203 citations

Focus of attention and causal attributions of actors and observers

1975 • 202 citations

Positive expectations predict health after heart transplantation.

1995 • 202 citations

Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.

1965 • 201 citations

Misunderstandings in human relations: a study in false social perception.

1949 • 201 citations

A model of calibration for subjective probabilities

1980 • 201 citations

Beliefs about Overconfidence, Including Its Cross-National Variation

1996 • 201 citations

Psychometrics, intelligence, and public perception

1997 • 200 citations

The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning

1970 • 198 citations

Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Prediction in Parole Decision Making

1982 • 198 citations

Deciding before you think: Relevance and reasoning in the selection task

1996 • 198 citations

Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents

1984 • 198 citations

Mood effects on cooperation in small groups: Does positive mood simply lead to more cooperation?

2000 • 198 citations

The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.

1990 • 198 citations

Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory

1993 • 198 citations

Nonunique Invulnerability: Singular versus Distributional Probabilities and Unrealistic Optimism in Comparative Risk Judgments

1996 • 197 citations

The Importance of the Task in Analyzing Expert Judgment

1997 • 197 citations

Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control.

1967 • 197 citations

The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble

1967 • 196 citations

Task effort and the regulation of mood: The absorption hypothesis

1992 • 195 citations

Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations?

1991 • 194 citations

Influence of overt head movements on memory for valenced words: A case of conceptual-motor compatibility.

1996 • 194 citations

When do base rates affect predictions?

1981 • 193 citations

The public's view of the impact of the mass media: A test of the ‘third person’ effect

1988 • 193 citations

The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior.

1977 • 192 citations

Differential forgetting of prototypes and old instances: Simulation by an exemplar-based classification model

1980 • 192 citations

The Conjunction Fallacy

1984 • 191 citations

How would it feel if...? Mood as input to a role fulfillment evaluation process.

1997 • 190 citations

Sensitivity of subjective probability revision.

1965 • 190 citations

Availability, Wishful Thinking, and Physicians' Diagnostic Judgments for Patients with Suspected Bacteremia

1991 • 189 citations

Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?

1999 • 189 citations

The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions.

1992 • 189 citations

“You Are What You Eat”: Applying the Demand‐Free “Impressions” Technique to an Unacknowledged Belief

1989 • 189 citations

The availability heuristic revisited: Experienced ease of retrieval in mundane frequency estimates

1995 • 189 citations

A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles.

1959 • 188 citations

Analysts' Interim Earnings Forecasts: Evidence on the Forecasting Process

1994 • 188 citations

You don't know me, but I know you: The illusion of asymmetric insight.

2001 • 188 citations

Abstraction is Uncooperative*

1984 • 188 citations

Influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment: Practice, effort, information, and decision-making

1991 • 188 citations

Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon

1993 • 187 citations

Perceived susceptibility and self-protective behavior: A field experiment to encourage home radon testing.

1991 • 187 citations

Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather

2001 • 186 citations

The child's conception of food: The development of contamination sensitivity to "disgusting" substances.

1985 • 186 citations

Failure to replicate mood-dependent retrieval

1985 • 186 citations

The Game Theory of Language Regimes

1993 • 185 citations

Bracing for the Worst: Severity, Testing, and Feedback Timing as Moderators of the Optimistic Bias

1998 • 185 citations

The Sympathetic Magical Law of Similarity, Nominal Realism and Neglect of Negatives in Response to Negative Labels

1990 • 185 citations

Contamination sensitivity in young children.

1990 • 185 citations

Expression of the Uncertainties of Final Results

1968 • 184 citations

Magical Contagion Beliefs and Fear of AIDS1

1992 • 184 citations

Strategies of information search in causal analysis

1982 • 184 citations

A psychological point of view: Violations of rational rules as a diagnostic of mental processes

2000 • 184 citations

Intimates as agents of social support: Sources of consolation or despair?

1985 • 183 citations

Downward Comparison as a Coping Mechanism

1987 • 182 citations

Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty

1980 • 182 citations

Typicality and reasoning fallacies

1990 • 182 citations

Effects of Mood on Evaluative Judgements: Influence of Reduced Processing Capacity and Mood Salience

1998 • 181 citations

Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process?

1983 • 181 citations

Anchoring in Simulated Competitive Market Negotiation

1996 • 181 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 181 citations

Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments.

1990 • 181 citations

Color as an Environmental Processing Cue: External Affective Cues Can Directly Affect Processing Strategy Without Affecting Mood

1997 • 181 citations

On the psychology of playing blackjack: Normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory.

1985 • 179 citations

Rationality In An Uncertain World

2004 • 178 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 178 citations

The Knowledge of What Might have Been

1986 • 176 citations

Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior

1991 • 175 citations

Acceptance of personality interpretations: the "Barnum Effect" and beyond.

1977 • 175 citations

Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude–behavior consistency.

1984 • 175 citations

Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts about the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment

1982 • 175 citations

Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions

1974 • 174 citations

Mood

1989 • 174 citations

Intelligence, schooling, and society.

1997 • 173 citations

Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness.

1983 • 173 citations

Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers?

1981 • 173 citations

Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking

1978 • 173 citations

Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial

1986 • 172 citations

Influence of overt head movements on memory for valenced words: A case of conceptual-motor compatibility.

1996 • 172 citations

Close-call counterfactuals and belief-system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right.

1998 • 172 citations

The Measurement of Belief

1993 • 171 citations

What forecasts (seem to) mean

1994 • 170 citations

Children's Knowledge of Contagion and Contamination as Causes of Illness

1988 • 170 citations

Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill?

1983 • 170 citations

On the congruity between internal states and action.

1985 • 168 citations

Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self‐Serving Biases

1978 • 168 citations

Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy.

1986 • 168 citations

Biased Questions in Judgment of Covariation Studies

1982 • 167 citations

Sensitivity to indirect contacts with other persons: AIDS aversion as a composite of aversion to strangers, infection, moral taint, and misfortune.

1994 • 167 citations

Decision probability and utility

1989 • 167 citations

How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.

1993 • 166 citations

Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

1991 • 166 citations

The belief-bias effect in formal reasoning: The influence of knowledge on logic

1980 • 166 citations

On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies

1988 • 165 citations

"They saw a negotiation": Partisanship and involvement.

1995 • 165 citations

Repetition and the ring of truth: Biasing comments.

1991 • 164 citations

Relative importance of scenario information and frequency information in the judgment of risk

1989 • 164 citations

On the sensitivity of regression and regressors.

1978 • 164 citations

Relative contributions of protection motivation theory components in predicting exercise intentions and behavior.

1987 • 164 citations

Mood and the impact of category membership and individuating information

1996 • 164 citations

Outcome feedback: Hindsight and information.

1989 • 163 citations

Differential construal and the false consensus effect.

1990 • 163 citations

Scope (in)sensitivity in elicited valuations

1998 • 163 citations

Why (Cancer) Risk Communication Can Be Hard

1999 • 162 citations

The Spotlight Effect and the Illusion of Transparency

1999 • 162 citations

Format dependence in subjective probability calibration.

1999 • 162 citations

Motor Actions in Retrieval of Valenced Information: A Motor Congruence Effect

1997 • 161 citations

Cultural Influences on Response Style: Comparisons of Japanese and American College Students

1967 • 160 citations

Cognitive Loafing

1988 • 160 citations

The Probability of Heads

1986 • 159 citations

Does The Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts

1986 • 159 citations

Psychopathy, Fear Arousal and Anticipated Pain

1965 • 159 citations

Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting

2001 • 159 citations

Pragmatic Aspects of the Base-rate Fallacy

1995 • 159 citations

The optimal impact phenomenon: beyond the third person effect

1996 • 158 citations

Scenarios, past, present and future

1982 • 158 citations

Now you see it, now you don't: The preschool child's conception of invisible particles in the context of dissolving.

1993 • 158 citations

The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior

1992 • 158 citations

"Playing hard to get": Understanding an elusive phenomenon.

1973 • 157 citations

Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts

1985 • 157 citations

Overestimation of subjective probabilities

1974 • 157 citations

Adolescent health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors: A study of word association and imagery

1995 • 156 citations

Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts.

1986 • 155 citations

Effects of introspecting about reasons: Inferring attitudes from accessible thoughts.

1995 • 155 citations

"Naive cynicism" in everyday theories of responsibility assessment: On biased assumptions of bias.

1999 • 155 citations

What's fair? It depends on how you phrase the question.

1980 • 155 citations

Morality and Rational Choice

1993 • 155 citations

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Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election

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An availability bias in professional judgment

1988 • 127 citations

The role and validity of judgment in forecasting

1996 • 126 citations

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1986 • 126 citations

Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment and response.

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Cigarette Smokers: Rational Actors or Rational Fools?

2001 • 126 citations

An advantage model of choice

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The Covariance Decomposition of the Probability Score and Its Use in Evaluating Prognostic Estimates

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1987 • 125 citations

The dialogue of reason

1986 • 125 citations

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1989 • 125 citations

Probability Forecasting in Meterology

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When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Commentary on "Judged frequency of lethal events."

1978 • 124 citations

CULTURE, CIRCLES, AND COMMERCIALS

1998 • 124 citations

The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

1981 • 123 citations

Why Existence Value Should Be Used in Cost-Benefit Analysis

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1983 • 120 citations

Judging Situations: On the Effortful Process of Taking Dispositional Information Into Account

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The counterfactual fallacy: Confusing what might have been with what ought to have been

1990 • 120 citations

Development of the Concept of Inferential Validity

1986 • 120 citations

A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base‐rate model forecasts

1992 • 119 citations

Does Evidence Presentation Format Affect Judgment? An Experimental Evaluation of Displays of Data for Judgments

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1986 • 118 citations

Variants of uncertainty

1982 • 118 citations

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Cognitive Accommodation, Language, and Social Responsibility

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Reactions to Societal Trauma: Distress and/or Eustress

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Behavioral Decision Theory

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1976 • 117 citations

Physicians' Survival Predictions for Patients With Acute Congestive Heart Failure

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1994 • 116 citations

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Precision Measurements and Fundamental Constants

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1984 • 115 citations

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1987 • 115 citations

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1982 • 115 citations

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1991 • 114 citations

Optimism Biases among Brokerage and Non-Brokerage Firms' Equity Recommendations: Agency Costs in the Investment Industry

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Adherence to Health Care Regimens

1981 • 113 citations

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1983 • 113 citations

THE INFLUENCE OF CHRISTIAN NAME STEREOTYPES ON THE MARKING OF CHILDREN'S ESSAYS

1984 • 113 citations

The Relationship between Learning Disability, Neurological Impairment, and Delinquency

1981 • 112 citations

Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on Oil Drops

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1982 • 109 citations

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The controversy about irrationality

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1988 • 103 citations

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A Test of the Knew‐It‐All‐Along Effect in the 1984 Presidential and Statewide Elections1

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1984 • 100 citations

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ACCURACY OF STUDENT PREDICTION OF COLLEGE GRADES

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The child's conception of food: The development of categories of acceptable and rejected substances

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Imprinting or exposure learning in rats given early auditory stimulation

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When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Commentary on "Judged frequency of lethal events."

1978 • 46 citations

The effect of mood on different types of well-being judgments.

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Deleted Work

1955 • 0 citations

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