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1976 • 590 citations

Preference reversals: A broader perspective

1983 • 588 citations

Proprioceptive determinants of emotional and nonemotional feelings.

1993 • 585 citations

Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments.

1968 • 583 citations

Who accepts Savage's axiom?

1974 • 580 citations

The Psychology of Attitude Change and Social Influence

1991 • 576 citations

Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas.

1973 • 574 citations

A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making.

1971 • 574 citations

Learning theory and the symbolic processes.

1960 • 570 citations

Economics in the Laboratory

1994 • 568 citations

Relative importance of probabilities and payoffs in risk taking.

1968 • 566 citations

It Could Be Worse: Selective Evaluation as a Response to Victimization

1983 • 563 citations

Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others

1993 • 560 citations

Evidential impact of base rates

1982 • 560 citations

From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology.

1991 • 560 citations

Dissociation of processes in belief: Source recollection, statement familiarity, and the illusion of truth.

1992 • 559 citations

The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children

1975 • 559 citations

Mood and Persuasion: Affective States Influence the Processing of Persuasive Communications

1991 • 556 citations

Bias in Quantifying Judgments

1991 • 555 citations

The additive nature of chronic and temporary sources of construct accessibility.

1986 • 554 citations

Narcissism beyond Gestalt and awareness: The name letter effect

1985 • 551 citations

Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena.

1987 • 551 citations

The psychology of proof: deductive reasoning in human thinking

1994 • 545 citations

Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues

1991 • 543 citations

Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.

1991 • 535 citations

Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.

1983 • 535 citations

Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method.

1955 • 535 citations

Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like?

1992 • 534 citations

The Mental Simulation of Better and Worse Possible Worlds

1993 • 531 citations

Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers

1973 • 531 citations

The Psychology of Deductive Reasoning

1983 • 531 citations

Social roles, social control, and biases in social-perception processes.

1977 • 527 citations

Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death

1979 • 527 citations

The Differential Impact of Abstract vs. Concrete Information on Decisions¹

1977 • 525 citations

An Empirical Investigation of the Voluntary Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts

1980 • 525 citations

Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance

1986 • 524 citations

Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress?

1986 • 523 citations

How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions

1982 • 522 citations

On the relation between logic and thinking.

1962 • 521 citations

Defensive pessimism: Harnessing anxiety as motivation.

1986 • 519 citations

The Campus as a Frog Pond: An Application of the Theory of Relative Deprivation to Career Decisions of College Men

1966 • 517 citations

On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction.

1980 • 517 citations

Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so?

1982 • 516 citations

Attention and automaticity in the processing of self-relevant information.

1982 • 514 citations

Optimism, coping, psychological distress, and high-risk sexual behavior among men at risk for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

1992 • 510 citations

Measures of Subjective Well-Being

1991 • 508 citations

The Calculation of Errors by the Method of Least Squares

1932 • 507 citations

Dynamic Programming Under Uncertainty with a Quadratic Criterion Function

1956 • 506 citations

Accountability and the Perseverance of First Impressions

1983 • 506 citations

Attribution of responsibility and valence of success and failure in relation to initial confidence and task performance.

1969 • 504 citations

Generation of random sequences by human subjects: A critical survey of literature.

1972 • 503 citations

Beyond intuition and instinct blindness: toward an evolutionarily rigorous cognitive science

1994 • 502 citations

Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: Implications for theory and measurement of performance.

1986 • 500 citations

Feature-Based Induction

1993 • 498 citations

Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.

1977 • 495 citations

The perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers.

1980 • 495 citations

Mood-congruent judgment is a general effect.

1992 • 491 citations

The Contagion Concept in Adult Thinking in the United States: Transmission of Germs and of Interpersonal Influence

1994 • 491 citations

Costs, Risks, and Benefits of Surgery.

1978 • 491 citations

Assimilation and contrast as a function of people's willingness and ability to expend effort in forming an impression.

1990 • 491 citations

Egocentric interpretations of fairness and interpersonal conflict

1992 • 491 citations

Method and theory in the study of avoidance.

1969 • 491 citations

Regret and Elation Following Action and Inaction

1987 • 489 citations

Nontransitive measurable utility

1982 • 489 citations

Affectometer 2: A scale to measure current level of general happiness

1983 • 488 citations

How to think straight about psychology

1985 • 487 citations

On the psychology of experimental surprises.

1977 • 480 citations

Attributions in the sports pages.

1980 • 479 citations

Debiasing

1982 • 479 citations

The Effects of Over Head Movements on Persuasion: Compatibility and Incompatibility of Responses

1980 • 478 citations

Anchoring, efficacy, and action: The influence of judgmental heuristics on self-efficacy judgments and behavior.

1986 • 477 citations

Knowledge-based causal attribution: The abnormal conditions focus model.

1986 • 476 citations

Excuses: Their effective role in the negotiation of reality.

1988 • 473 citations

The fragmentation of reason

1990 • 471 citations

The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic

1978 • 471 citations

Responding to indirect speech acts

1979 • 471 citations

Priming and communication: Social determinants of information use in judgments of life satisfaction

1988 • 470 citations

The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis

1991 • 468 citations

Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

1977 • 465 citations

Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making

1983 • 465 citations

Performance expectancy as a determinant of actual performance.

1962 • 460 citations

What do we know about eyewitness identification?

1993 • 456 citations

Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning.

1977 • 453 citations

The Process of Question Answering

2022 • 450 citations

Constructing reality and its alternatives: an inclusion/ exclusion model of assimilation and contrast effects in social judgment

1992 • 448 citations

On resistance to persuasive communications.

1964 • 446 citations

The Self and Social Life.

1987 • 438 citations

Probability Versus Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement: Are they Equivalent?

1985 • 435 citations

Nonanalytic Cognition: Memory, Perception, and Concept Learning

1984 • 431 citations

The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors

1988 • 430 citations

Magic, Science, Religion, and the Scope of Rationality

1992 • 427 citations

External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

1982 • 427 citations

A Better World or a Shattered Vision? Changes in Life Perspectives Following Victimization

1990 • 425 citations

Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior?

1993 • 424 citations

Image Theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational Contexts.

1991 • 424 citations

Deescalation strategies: A comparison of techniques for reducing commitment to losing courses of action.

1992 • 423 citations

Experts in uncertainty

1993 • 421 citations

Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing.

1991 • 420 citations

Grammatical transformations and speed of understanding

1965 • 419 citations

Expert measurement and mechanical combination

1972 • 416 citations

Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds

1994 • 416 citations

A Reinforcement-Affect Model of Attraction

1974 • 415 citations

Dimensional commensurability and cue utilization in comparative judgment

1974 • 414 citations

Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal influences.

1983 • 413 citations

Do Robust Estimators Work with Real Data?

1977 • 413 citations

Specializing the operation of an explicit rule.

1991 • 410 citations

Analyzing the components of clinical inference.

1964 • 409 citations

Causes and Effects of My Disturbing Little Book

1986 • 408 citations

The perception of randomness

1991 • 404 citations

Reasons for Framing Effects

1993 • 404 citations

Some implications of a more general form of regret theory

1987 • 401 citations

Mood and memory: Evaluating the network theory of affect

1988 • 398 citations

Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding

1991 • 396 citations

Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility.

1983 • 396 citations

Risk Premiums for Decision Regret

1983 • 395 citations

Heuristics for Scientific Experimentation: A Developmental Study

1993 • 390 citations

Review of particle properties

1982 • 389 citations

Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.

1985 • 387 citations

Social Cognition, Inference, and Attribution

2018 • 386 citations

The limits of anchoring

1994 • 385 citations

The dark side of self- and social perception: Black uniforms and aggression in professional sports.

1988 • 384 citations

Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease

1985 • 384 citations

Role of disconfirmed expectancies in the instigation of attributional processing.

1981 • 384 citations

Our Knowledge of the Fundamental Constants of Physics and Chemistry in 1965

1965 • 383 citations

Perspective-Taking in Communication: Representations of Others' Knowledge in Reference

1991 • 383 citations

Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making

1987 • 381 citations

Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence

1992 • 380 citations

Risk-taking behavior

1992 • 380 citations

Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation

1976 • 380 citations

Affective consequences of mere ownership: The name letter effect in twelve European languages

1987 • 379 citations

Mental simulation of causality.

1989 • 379 citations

Storage and verification stages in processing concepts

1971 • 377 citations

For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight

1982 • 377 citations

Threat as a determinant of downward comparison

1966 • 375 citations

Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

1977 • 375 citations

Anticipatory and post hoc cushioning strategies: Optimism and defensive pessimism in ?risky? situations

1986 • 374 citations

The wisdom of the ego

1993 • 373 citations

Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable.

1988 • 372 citations

Repetition and Memory

1976 • 372 citations

Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect

1989 • 372 citations

Introspection, Attitude Change, and Attitude-Behavior Consistency: the Disruptive Effects of Explaining Why we Feel the Way we Do

1989 • 371 citations

Overattribution and unit formation: When behavior engulfs the person.

1982 • 370 citations

Brand Logo Recognition by Children Aged 3 to 6 Years

1991 • 368 citations

Self-deception: A concept in search of a phenomenon.

1979 • 367 citations

A suggested alternative formulation in the developments by Hursch, Hammond, and Hursch, and by Hammond, Hursch, and Todd.

1964 • 367 citations

Rational choice theory: Necessary but not sufficient.

1990 • 366 citations

Judgment in a Social Context: Biases, Shortcomings, and the Logic of Conversation

1994 • 364 citations

Social roles and utilities in reasoning with deontic conditionals

1991 • 363 citations

A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task

1970 • 362 citations

The laws of sympathetic magic

1990 • 362 citations

Soccer, rooms, and the quality of your life: Mood effects on judgments of satisfaction with life in general and with specific domains

1987 • 361 citations

Anticipatory stress and coping reactions under various conditions of uncertainty.

1972 • 359 citations

Facilitation of reasoning by realism: Effect or non‐effect?

1979 • 356 citations

Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A Methodology and an Application to Radon

1992 • 353 citations

Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory.

1990 • 352 citations

Eliminating the hindsight bias.

1988 • 351 citations

Consumer Rationality and the Status Quo

1991 • 350 citations

Descarte's error : emotion, reason, and the human brain

1994 • 350 citations

Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: A study in the headline method

1994 • 349 citations

State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review

1983 • 349 citations

A Model of Behavioral Self-Regulation: Translating Intention into Action

1988 • 348 citations

Craving for Alcohol, Loss of Control, and Relapse: A Cognitive-Behavioral Analysis

1978 • 346 citations

Social Learning and Imitation

1942 • 343 citations

Category breadth and hierarchical structure in personality: Studies of asymmetries in judgments of trait implications.

1986 • 342 citations

On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments

1979 • 339 citations

Security Analyst Multi-Year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market

1985 • 339 citations

Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability

1993 • 338 citations

College Students' Spontaneous Self-Concept

1983 • 335 citations

On the subjective probability of compound events

1973 • 335 citations

Nuclear learning and U.S.–Soviet security regimes

1987 • 334 citations

Equality as a decision heuristic

1993 • 332 citations

Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments

1982 • 331 citations

The effects of severity of initiation on liking for a group: A replication

1966 • 329 citations

Facial expressions and the regulation of emotions.

1990 • 326 citations

The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items

1994 • 324 citations

Diagnosticians vs. diagnostic signs: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI.

1965 • 324 citations

Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism

1982 • 321 citations

Incorrigibility as the Mark of the Mental

1970 • 321 citations

Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

1981 • 320 citations

Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation

1986 • 320 citations

Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study

1987 • 319 citations

Family resemblance in attitudes to foods.

1984 • 318 citations

Freedom and Reactance. By Robert A. Wicklund. (Potomac, Md.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1974. Pp. 205. $10.95.)

1977 • 317 citations

Reality Negotiation: From Excuses to Hope and Beyond

1989 • 316 citations

The Role of Perspective-Taking Ability in Negotiating under Different Forms of Arbitration

1983 • 315 citations

Commitment in an experimenting society: A study of the attribution of leadership from administrative scenarios.

1980 • 315 citations

MATCHING BIAS IN THE SELECTION TASK

1973 • 315 citations

Social explanation and social expectation: Effects of real and hypothetical explanations on subjective likelihood.

1977 • 314 citations

When shall we use our heads instead of the formula?

1957 • 314 citations

On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy?

1979 • 313 citations

Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments

1982 • 313 citations

Likeness and Likelihood in Everyday Thought: Magical Thinking in Judgments About Personality [and Comments and Reply]

1977 • 313 citations

Probability Forecasting in Meteorology

1984 • 313 citations

Category accessibility: Some theoretical and empirical issues concerning the processing of social stimulus information

1981 • 312 citations

Increasing voting behavior by asking people if they expect to vote.

1987 • 311 citations

The Limits of Scientific Reasoning

1986 • 308 citations

The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments

1994 • 308 citations

Mapping part-whole hierarchies into connectionist networks

1990 • 308 citations

Flexible Correction Processes in Social Judgment: Correcting for Context-Induced Contrast

1993 • 307 citations

Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking

1976 • 305 citations

Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors

1949 • 305 citations

Decision Sciences

1993 • 302 citations

Actors, observers, and the attribution process

1977 • 302 citations

An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions

1986 • 302 citations

Perceived Risk, Stigma, and Potential Economic Impacts of a High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada

1991 • 302 citations

The Easy Path From Many To Much: the Numerosity Heuristic

1994 • 301 citations

Evaluation of evidence in causal inference.

1981 • 301 citations

Meta-analysis: a review.

1991 • 300 citations

Article Commentary: Judgment and Decision Making: A Personal View

1991 • 300 citations

Justification and the Psychology of Human Reasoning

1980 • 297 citations

Testing for Regret and Disappointment in Choice Under Uncertainty

1987 • 296 citations

A critique of expected utility theory: Descriptive and normative considerations

1975 • 294 citations

The relative accuracy of self-predictions and judgments by others in psychological assessment.

1981 • 291 citations

Bringing the models together: An empirical approach to combining variables used to explain health actions

1980 • 291 citations

Bully for brontosaurus: reflections in natural history

1991 • 288 citations

A note on prototype theory and fuzzy sets

1982 • 287 citations

Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem

1983 • 287 citations

From individual to group impressions: Availability heuristics in stereotype formation

1978 • 287 citations

Smoking: Making the Risky Decision.

1994 • 286 citations

Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships.

1984 • 285 citations

Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts

1992 • 285 citations

The verification of sentences: The effects of delay of evidence and sentence length

1966 • 284 citations

Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.

1982 • 283 citations

Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics

1981 • 282 citations

Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes

1953 • 282 citations

Stability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives

1956 • 281 citations

Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won.

1990 • 279 citations

Cognitive processes in preference reversals

1989 • 278 citations

Professional Expectations: Accuracy and Diagnosis of Errors

1984 • 277 citations

The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility

1979 • 277 citations

Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation

1986 • 273 citations

Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable

1938 • 273 citations

Not can, but will college teaching be improved?

1977 • 272 citations

Positive and Negative Life Changes Following Bereavement and their Relations to Adjustment

1993 • 272 citations

Knowledge Maps

1989 • 271 citations

THE RELEVANCE OF QUASI RATIONALITY IN COMPETITIVE MARKETS

1988 • 270 citations

The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors

1992 • 270 citations

Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life

1990 • 270 citations

Of thoughts unspoken: Social inference and the self-regulation of behavior.

1988 • 265 citations

Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims

1994 • 265 citations

The Illusory Transparency of Intention: Linguistic Perspective Taking in Text

1994 • 264 citations

Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy

1991 • 263 citations

Forecasting with scenarios

1993 • 263 citations

On the functional equivalence of literal and metaphorical interpretations in discourse

1989 • 261 citations

Testing for juxtaposition and event-splitting effects

1993 • 260 citations

Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.

1988 • 260 citations

Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others.

1990 • 259 citations

The effects of intended audience on message production and comprehension: Reference in a common ground framework

1989 • 259 citations

Base Rates, Representativeness, and the Logic of Conversation: The Contextual Relevance of “Irrelevant” Information

1991 • 258 citations

Epistemics: The Regulative Theory of Cognition

1978 • 257 citations

Effects of strategic self-presentation on subsequent self-esteem.

1981 • 256 citations

Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness.

1982 • 256 citations

Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility.

1983 • 256 citations

Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

1972 • 255 citations

Bias in Utility Assessments: Further Evidence and Explanations

1989 • 254 citations

The availability bias in social perception and interaction

1982 • 253 citations

The Influence of Attributions on the Relevance of Negative Feelings to Personal Satisfaction

1993 • 252 citations

The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond

1981 • 252 citations

Controlling software projects : management, measurement & estimation

1982 • 251 citations

Social Decision Heuristics in the Use of Shared Resources

1990 • 251 citations

Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment*

1985 • 251 citations

Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting

1981 • 248 citations

Food, Sex, and Pollution: A New Guinea Religion.

1985 • 248 citations

Additive representations of non-additive measures and the choquet integral

1994 • 248 citations

Thinking the Unthinkable: The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear War¹

1989 • 244 citations

Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment

1989 • 244 citations

Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance

1992 • 243 citations

Does the Grist Change the Mill? The Effect of the Perceiver's Inferential Goal on the Process of Social Inference

1993 • 243 citations

Gradedness and conceptual combination

1982 • 243 citations

When every relationship is above average: Perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage.

1993 • 242 citations

Achieving patient compliance

1982 • 241 citations

Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments

1993 • 240 citations

Experience and the base-rate fallacy

1982 • 240 citations

Russia under the Bolshevik Regime

1994 • 239 citations

THE MULTIPLICITY OF THOUGHT*

1963 • 239 citations

Temporal order and the perceived mutability of events: Implications for blame assignment.

1990 • 238 citations

Base rates can affect individual predictions.

1980 • 238 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL

1978 • 237 citations

Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers

1984 • 236 citations

Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference

1966 • 235 citations

The mental representation of trait and autobiographical knowledge about the self

1993 • 235 citations

Probable Values of the General Physical Constants

1929 • 235 citations

Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa).

1994 • 234 citations

Structuring decision problems and the ‘bias heuristic’

1982 • 233 citations

Face-saving and entrapment

1981 • 233 citations

Elastic shifts of opinion: Determinants of direction and durability.

1976 • 233 citations

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

1987 • 232 citations

Testing the Internal Consistency of Contingent Valuation Surveys

1996 • 232 citations

Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs

1983 • 231 citations

Least-Squares Adjustment of the Atomic Constants, 1952

1953 • 231 citations

Physician and Medical Student Bias in Evaluating Diagnostic Information

1981 • 231 citations

Analysis of Variance of the 1952 Data on the Atomic Constants and a New Adjustment, 1955

1955 • 230 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*

1951 • 229 citations

A network approach to mental multiplication.

1982 • 229 citations

The cognitive dynamics of salience in the attribution process.

1977 • 228 citations

The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?

1991 • 228 citations

Information framing effects in social and personal decisions

1988 • 228 citations

The effect of choosing on confidence in choice

1990 • 228 citations

Craps and Magic

1967 • 226 citations

Regret, recrimination and rationality

1985 • 223 citations

Endowment and contrast in judgments of well-being.

1991 • 222 citations

Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution

1982 • 221 citations

Mood-Related Persuasion Depends on (Mis)Attributions

1994 • 221 citations

Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role of selection and training.

1982 • 220 citations

The Role of Affective Expectations in Subjective Experience and Decision-Making

1994 • 219 citations

Operation of the sympathetic magical law of contagion in interpersonal attitudes among Americans

1989 • 218 citations

Coping with irrevocable loss.

1987 • 218 citations

Counterfactual Thinking and Social Perception: Thinking about What Might Have Been

1990 • 217 citations

Perceived Risk of AIDS: Assessing the Behavioral and Psychosocial Consequences in a Cohort of Gay Men¹

1987 • 216 citations

A Catalog of Risks

1979 • 214 citations

Rationality: a philosophical inquiry into the nature and the rationale of reason

1989 • 214 citations

Good patterns have few alternatives.

1970 • 212 citations

Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance.

1985 • 212 citations

General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models

1981 • 212 citations

What Risks Are People Concerned About

1991 • 211 citations

Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues.

1965 • 211 citations

Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States

1989 • 210 citations

Developing an intuitive understanding of conservation and contamination: Invisible particles as a plausible mechanism.

1993 • 210 citations

Coming to terms with major negative life events.

1989 • 209 citations

Social explanation: The role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates.

1983 • 207 citations

Social categorization and the truly false consensus effect.

1993 • 207 citations

Name stereotypes and teachers' expectations.

1973 • 206 citations

Influence of Elaboration on the Framing of Decision

1994 • 205 citations

Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information.

1962 • 205 citations

Context, categorization, and recall: The “change-of-standard” effect

1983 • 203 citations

Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis

1991 • 203 citations

Focus of attention and causal attributions of actors and observers

1975 • 202 citations

Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.

1965 • 201 citations

Misunderstandings in human relations: a study in false social perception.

1949 • 201 citations

A model of calibration for subjective probabilities

1980 • 201 citations

The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning

1970 • 198 citations

Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Prediction in Parole Decision Making

1982 • 198 citations

Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory

1993 • 198 citations

Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents

1984 • 198 citations

Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control.

1967 • 197 citations

The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble

1967 • 196 citations

Task effort and the regulation of mood: The absorption hypothesis

1992 • 195 citations

Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations?

1991 • 194 citations

When do base rates affect predictions?

1981 • 193 citations

The public's view of the impact of the mass media: A test of the ‘third person’ effect

1988 • 193 citations

The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior.

1977 • 192 citations

Differential forgetting of prototypes and old instances: Simulation by an exemplar-based classification model

1980 • 192 citations

The Conjunction Fallacy

1984 • 191 citations

Sensitivity of subjective probability revision.

1965 • 190 citations

Availability, Wishful Thinking, and Physicians' Diagnostic Judgments for Patients with Suspected Bacteremia

1991 • 189 citations

“You Are What You Eat”: Applying the Demand‐Free “Impressions” Technique to an Unacknowledged Belief

1989 • 189 citations

The availability heuristic revisited: Experienced ease of retrieval in mundane frequency estimates

1995 • 189 citations

Abstraction is Uncooperative*

1984 • 188 citations

Influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment: Practice, effort, information, and decision-making

1991 • 188 citations

A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles.

1959 • 188 citations

Analysts' Interim Earnings Forecasts: Evidence on the Forecasting Process

1994 • 188 citations

Perceived susceptibility and self-protective behavior: A field experiment to encourage home radon testing.

1991 • 187 citations

Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon

1993 • 187 citations

The child's conception of food: The development of contamination sensitivity to "disgusting" substances.

1985 • 186 citations

Failure to replicate mood-dependent retrieval

1985 • 186 citations

The Game Theory of Language Regimes

1993 • 185 citations

The Sympathetic Magical Law of Similarity, Nominal Realism and Neglect of Negatives in Response to Negative Labels

1990 • 185 citations

Contamination sensitivity in young children.

1990 • 185 citations

Strategies of information search in causal analysis

1982 • 184 citations

Magical Contagion Beliefs and Fear of AIDS¹

1992 • 184 citations

Intimates as agents of social support: Sources of consolation or despair?

1985 • 183 citations

Downward Comparison as a Coping Mechanism

1987 • 182 citations

Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty

1980 • 182 citations

Typicality and reasoning fallacies

1990 • 182 citations

Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process?

1983 • 181 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 181 citations

Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments.

1990 • 181 citations

On the psychology of playing blackjack: Normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory.

1985 • 179 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 178 citations

The Knowledge of What Might have Been

1986 • 176 citations

Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior

1991 • 175 citations

Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude–behavior consistency.

1984 • 175 citations

Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts about the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment

1982 • 175 citations

Acceptance of personality interpretations: the "Barnum Effect" and beyond.

1977 • 175 citations

Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions

1974 • 174 citations

Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness.

1983 • 173 citations

Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking

1978 • 173 citations

Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers?

1981 • 173 citations

Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial

1986 • 172 citations

The Measurement of Belief

1993 • 171 citations

What forecasts (seem to) mean

1994 • 170 citations

Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill?

1983 • 170 citations

On the congruity between internal states and action.

1985 • 168 citations

Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self‐Serving Biases

1978 • 168 citations

Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy.

1986 • 168 citations

Biased Questions in Judgment of Covariation Studies

1982 • 167 citations

Decision probability and utility

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Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

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Thinking and deciding, 2nd ed.

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Cognitive Loafing

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The Probability of Heads

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Psychopathy, Fear Arousal and Anticipated Pain

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Does The Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts

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The logic of grammar

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Scenarios, past, present and future

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The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior

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Overestimation of subjective probabilities

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What's fair? It depends on how you phrase the question.

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Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts.

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THE ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM IN CHILDREN WITH MINIMAL CEREBRAL DYSFUNCTION

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Confirmation and Matching Biases in Hypothesis Testing

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Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election

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Further Evidence of the Impact of Regret and Disappointment in Choice under Uncertainty

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Consumer Perceptions of Tensile Price Claims in Advertisements: An Assessment of Claim Types Across Different Discount Levels

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The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share

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The Particle Data Group: Growth and Operations-Eighteen Years of Particle Physics

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The overprediction of fear

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Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit

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The major determinants of the prediction of social events.

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Equating Inverse Probabilities in Implicit Personality Judgments

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Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities

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The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy

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Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences

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Reasoning with contrary-to-fact propositions

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Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge

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Alternative Institutions for Resolving Coordination Problems: Experimental Evidence on Forward Induction and Preplaycommunication

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A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners

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Principles of Philosophy

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Priming and Frequency Estimation

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Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

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From the Descriptive to the Normative in Psychology and Logic

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Least-Squares Adjusted Values of the Atomic Constants as of December, 1950

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Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”

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Status Evaluation in the Hindu Caste System

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Forward induction in coordination games

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An availability bias in professional judgment

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Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation

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When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Commentary on "Judged frequency of lethal events."

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The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

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Why Existence Value Should Be Used in Cost-Benefit Analysis

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Against all Odds: Holocaust Survivors and the Successful Lives They Made in America.

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A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

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Cognitive Accommodation, Language, and Social Responsibility

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Sequence Anchoring and Self-Efficacy: Primacy Effects in the Consideration of Possibilities

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Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts

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Stimulus estimation and the overprediction of fear