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Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships.

1984 • 285 citations

The verification of sentences: The effects of delay of evidence and sentence length

1966 • 284 citations

Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.

1982 • 283 citations

Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes

1953 • 282 citations

Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics

1981 • 282 citations

Stability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives

1956 • 281 citations

Getting what you want by revising what you had.

1984 • 280 citations

Professional Expectations: Accuracy and Diagnosis of Errors

1984 • 277 citations

The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility

1979 • 277 citations

Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation

1986 • 273 citations

Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable

1938 • 273 citations

Not can, but will college teaching be improved?

1977 • 272 citations

THE RELEVANCE OF QUASI RATIONALITY IN COMPETITIVE MARKETS

1988 • 270 citations

Epistemics: The Regulative Theory of Cognition

1978 • 257 citations

Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness.

1982 • 256 citations

Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility.

1983 • 256 citations

Effects of strategic self-presentation on subsequent self-esteem.

1981 • 256 citations

Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

1972 • 255 citations

The availability bias in social perception and interaction

1982 • 253 citations

The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond

1981 • 252 citations

Controlling software projects : management, measurement & estimation

1982 • 251 citations

Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment*

1985 • 251 citations

Food, Sex, and Pollution: A New Guinea Religion.

1985 • 248 citations

Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting

1981 • 248 citations

Gradedness and conceptual combination

1982 • 243 citations

Achieving patient compliance

1982 • 241 citations

Experience and the base-rate fallacy

1982 • 240 citations

THE MULTIPLICITY OF THOUGHT*

1963 • 239 citations

Base rates can affect individual predictions.

1980 • 238 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL

1978 • 237 citations

Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers

1984 • 236 citations

Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference

1966 • 235 citations

Probable Values of the General Physical Constants

1929 • 235 citations

Structuring decision problems and the ‘bias heuristic’

1982 • 233 citations

Elastic shifts of opinion: Determinants of direction and durability.

1976 • 233 citations

Face-saving and entrapment

1981 • 233 citations

Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs

1983 • 231 citations

Physician and Medical Student Bias in Evaluating Diagnostic Information

1981 • 231 citations

Least-Squares Adjustment of the Atomic Constants, 1952

1953 • 231 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

Analysis of Variance of the 1952 Data on the Atomic Constants and a New Adjustment, 1955

1955 • 230 citations

THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*

1951 • 229 citations

A network approach to mental multiplication.

1982 • 229 citations

The cognitive dynamics of salience in the attribution process.

1977 • 228 citations

Craps and Magic

1967 • 226 citations

Regret, recrimination and rationality

1985 • 223 citations

Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution

1982 • 221 citations

Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role of selection and training.

1982 • 220 citations

Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments about Risk

1982 • 219 citations

A Catalog of Risks

1979 • 214 citations

Good patterns have few alternatives.

1970 • 212 citations

General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models

1981 • 212 citations

Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance.

1985 • 212 citations

Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues.

1965 • 211 citations

Social explanation: The role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates.

1983 • 207 citations

Name stereotypes and teachers' expectations.

1973 • 206 citations

Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information.

1962 • 205 citations

Context, categorization, and recall: The “change-of-standard” effect

1983 • 203 citations

Focus of attention and causal attributions of actors and observers

1975 • 202 citations

Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.

1965 • 201 citations

Misunderstandings in human relations: a study in false social perception.

1949 • 201 citations

A model of calibration for subjective probabilities

1980 • 201 citations

The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning

1970 • 198 citations

Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Prediction in Parole Decision Making

1982 • 198 citations

Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents

1984 • 198 citations

Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control.

1967 • 197 citations

The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble

1967 • 196 citations

When do base rates affect predictions?

1981 • 193 citations

Differential forgetting of prototypes and old instances: Simulation by an exemplar-based classification model

1980 • 192 citations

The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior.

1977 • 192 citations

The Conjunction Fallacy

1984 • 191 citations

Sensitivity of subjective probability revision.

1965 • 190 citations

A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles.

1959 • 188 citations

Abstraction is Uncooperative*

1984 • 188 citations

Failure to replicate mood-dependent retrieval

1985 • 186 citations

The child's conception of food: The development of contamination sensitivity to "disgusting" substances.

1985 • 186 citations

Strategies of information search in causal analysis

1982 • 184 citations

Intimates as agents of social support: Sources of consolation or despair?

1985 • 183 citations

Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty

1980 • 182 citations

Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process?

1983 • 181 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 181 citations

On the psychology of playing blackjack: Normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory.

1985 • 179 citations

Self-knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data.

1984 • 178 citations

The Knowledge of What Might have Been

1986 • 176 citations

Acceptance of personality interpretations: the "Barnum Effect" and beyond.

1977 • 175 citations

Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts about the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment

1982 • 175 citations

Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude–behavior consistency.

1984 • 175 citations

Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions

1974 • 174 citations

Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking

1978 • 173 citations

Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers?

1981 • 173 citations

Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness.

1983 • 173 citations

Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial

1986 • 172 citations

The Measurement of Belief

1993 • 171 citations

Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill?

1983 • 170 citations

On the congruity between internal states and action.

1985 • 168 citations

Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self‐Serving Biases

1978 • 168 citations

Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy.

1986 • 168 citations

Biased Questions in Judgment of Covariation Studies

1982 • 167 citations

The belief-bias effect in formal reasoning: The influence of knowledge on logic

1980 • 166 citations

On the sensitivity of regression and regressors.

1978 • 164 citations

Cultural Influences on Response Style: Comparisons of Japanese and American College Students

1967 • 160 citations

The Probability of Heads

1986 • 159 citations

Psychopathy, Fear Arousal and Anticipated Pain

1965 • 159 citations

Does The Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts

1986 • 159 citations

Scenarios, past, present and future

1982 • 158 citations

"Playing hard to get": Understanding an elusive phenomenon.

1973 • 157 citations

Overestimation of subjective probabilities

1974 • 157 citations

Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts.

1986 • 155 citations

What's fair? It depends on how you phrase the question.

1980 • 155 citations

THE ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM IN CHILDREN WITH MINIMAL CEREBRAL DYSFUNCTION

1968 • 154 citations

Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election

1982 • 152 citations

The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share

1975 • 151 citations

The Particle Data Group: Growth and Operations-Eighteen Years of Particle Physics

1975 • 149 citations

The major determinants of the prediction of social events.

1938 • 147 citations

A double-blind test of astrology

1985 • 146 citations

Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities

1977 • 144 citations

Affect and Memory: the Impact of Affective Reactions in Advertising on the Representation of Product Information in Memory

1983 • 143 citations

When discounting fails: Conditions under which individuals use discredited information in making a judgment.

1985 • 141 citations

Reversed facial images and the mere-exposure hypothesis.

1977 • 141 citations

The general physical constants: As of august 1941 with details on the velocity of light only

1941 • 140 citations

The Effects of Problem Content and Negation on Wason's Selection Task

1983 • 138 citations

The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy

1983 • 137 citations

Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences

2019 • 137 citations

Stacks not fuzzy sets: An ordinal basis for prototype theory of concepts

1982 • 137 citations

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

1984 • 135 citations

Priming and Frequency Estimation

1984 • 134 citations

Clinical and statistical prediction

1981 • 134 citations

The transparency of denial: Briefing in the debriefing paradigm.

1985 • 134 citations

Decisions and memory: Differential retrievability of consistent and contradictory evidence

1984 • 133 citations

Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

1984 • 132 citations

Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates

1974 • 132 citations

Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration.

1985 • 131 citations

Studies in subjective probability III: The unimportance of alternatives

1983 • 131 citations

Some apparent violations of the representativeness heuristic in human judgment.

1976 • 130 citations

From the Descriptive to the Normative in Psychology and Logic

1982 • 129 citations

Least-Squares Adjusted Values of the Atomic Constants as of December, 1950

1951 • 128 citations

Status Evaluation in the Hindu Caste System

1954 • 128 citations

Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation

1986 • 126 citations

The dialogue of reason

1986 • 125 citations

When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Commentary on "Judged frequency of lethal events."

1978 • 124 citations

The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

1981 • 123 citations

A second look at the utility of radiographic skull examination for trauma

1979 • 122 citations

On the Conservation of Liquids

1971 • 122 citations

A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

1983 • 120 citations

A comparison of three predictors of an individual's memory performance: The individual's feeling of knowing versus the normative feeling of knowing versus base-rate item difficulty.

1986 • 118 citations

Variants of uncertainty

1982 • 118 citations

Who commits the base rate fallacy?

1983 • 118 citations

Cognitive Accommodation, Language, and Social Responsibility

1978 • 118 citations

An investigation of the relations among probability estimates

1976 • 117 citations

Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts

1985 • 116 citations

Variability and confirmation

1982 • 115 citations

Precision Measurements and Fundamental Constants

1983 • 115 citations

Focusing techniques: A shortcut to improving probability judgments?

1984 • 115 citations

Adherence to Health Care Regimens

1981 • 113 citations

THE INFLUENCE OF CHRISTIAN NAME STEREOTYPES ON THE MARKING OF CHILDREN'S ESSAYS

1984 • 113 citations

Can irrationality be intelligently discussed?

1983 • 113 citations

The Relationship between Learning Disability, Neurological Impairment, and Delinquency

1981 • 112 citations

Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on Oil Drops

1981 • 111 citations

Who shall be the arbiter of our intuitions?

1981 • 109 citations

Effects of fear-arousing components of driver education on students' safety attitudes and simulator performance.

1976 • 109 citations

Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions

1982 • 109 citations

The nature of decisions in gambling

1957 • 108 citations

Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment

1984 • 107 citations

Attribution of Arousal as a Mediator of the Effectiveness of Fear‐Arousing Communications¹

1985 • 106 citations

The controversy about irrationality

1983 • 104 citations

Clinical detection of intellectual deterioration associated with brain damage

1984 • 104 citations

The Psychology of Reasoning

1999 • 102 citations

The conjunction fallacy?

1990 • 102 citations

Predicting Length of Hospitalization of Mental Patients

1946 • 101 citations

Popular Lectures on Scientific Subjects

2008 • 101 citations

Analogical reasoning in social judgment: The importance of causal theories.

1984 • 100 citations

Information Processing and the Perseverance of Discredited Self-Perceptions

1979 • 99 citations

Setting Standards: A Systematic Approach to Managing Public Health and Safety Risks

1984 • 99 citations

On the Accuracy of Dispositional Versus Situational Attributions

1982 • 97 citations

Heart Rate and Skin Conductance in Anticipation of Shocks With Varying Probability of Occurrence

1974 • 95 citations

“Is” and “ought” in cognitive science

1981 • 94 citations

ACCURACY OF STUDENT PREDICTION OF COLLEGE GRADES

1963 • 94 citations

The child's conception of food: The development of categories of acceptable and rejected substances

1986 • 92 citations

Mood and memory for tightly organized social information

1986 • 92 citations

Imprinting or exposure learning in rats given early auditory stimulation

1967 • 92 citations

Effects of public education about breast cancer and breast self-examination

1984 • 92 citations

Clinical-actuarial detection and description of brain impairment with the W-B form I

1981 • 91 citations

Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

1985 • 90 citations

The Fundamental Constants and Quantum Electrodynamics

1971 • 90 citations

“Velocity of Light and of Radio Waves”

1950 • 87 citations

Language, literacy, and mental states

1987 • 86 citations

CLINICAL VERSUS ACTUARIAL PREDICTION IN THE DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS OF JAUNDICE

1960 • 85 citations

Multiple attribute scenarios, bounded probabilities, and threats of nuclear theft

1982 • 84 citations

The Effects of Subjective Affective States on Memory and Judgment

1984 • 84 citations

The Speed of Light

1955 • 83 citations

Forging, cooking, trimming, and riding on the bandwagon

1984 • 82 citations

Naive conceptions of free will and the deterministic paradox.

1981 • 82 citations

Ibsen : letters and speeches

1965 • 81 citations

The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True-False Questions: Model and Experiment

1983 • 80 citations

An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty

2013 • 78 citations

FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN PERCENTAGES OF PROBABILITY.

1920 • 77 citations

Are Bayesian decisions artificially intelligent? The effect of task and personality on conservatism in processing information.

1971 • 77 citations

Fundamental Constants of Physics

1959 • 76 citations

Approximate probability and expectation of gambles

1975 • 76 citations

Flocking of Domestic Chicks

1964 • 76 citations

Heart Rate in Anticipation of Shocks Which Have Different Probabilities of Occurrences

1975 • 75 citations

The bias phenomenon in attitude attribution: Actor and observer perspectives.

1979 • 75 citations

Temporal estimation and heart rate as a function of repression-sensitization score and probability of shock.

1971 • 75 citations

Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context

1978 • 73 citations

Velocity of Light

1934 • 73 citations

Probability Theory for Statistical Methods

1951 • 71 citations

A note on an unexpected anchoring bias in intuitive statistical inference

1985 • 68 citations

KNOWING AND PRACTICING: TEACHING BEHAVIOURAL SCIENCES AT THE ISRAEL DEFENCE FORCES COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE

1983 • 68 citations

The 1973 Oil Crisis and its Aftermath

1985 • 68 citations

False Probabilistic Arguments v. Faulty Intuition

1979 • 67 citations

Mental Efficiency Levels Before and After Shock Therapy

1942 • 61 citations

Scientific aspects of graphology : a handbook

1986 • 48 citations

Risk assessment: Evaluating error in subjective estimates

1981 • 47 citations

Equal Weights, Flat Maxima, and Trivial Decisions.

1980 • 46 citations

Deleted Work

1955 • 0 citations