Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.

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1975 • 23,866 citations

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1973 • 9,345 citations

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Features of similarity.

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On the psychology of prediction.

1973 • 6,028 citations

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

1984 • 5,967 citations

Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness

1972 • 4,401 citations

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1983 • 4,358 citations

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On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task

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The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.

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Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

1982 • 1,842 citations

Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment

1971 • 1,820 citations

Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research.

1963 • 1,732 citations

Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

1975 • 1,702 citations

Judged frequency of lethal events.

1978 • 1,421 citations

Reasons for confidence.

1980 • 1,378 citations

Reasoning about a Rule

1968 • 1,362 citations

Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated?

1981 • 1,204 citations

The Logic of Decision

1965 • 1,174 citations

The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments

1980 • 1,132 citations

Conservatism in human information processing

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Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction.

1978 • 900 citations

Hindsight-foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

1974 • 836 citations

Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint

1965 • 735 citations

Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities

1982 • 718 citations

The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment.

1960 • 709 citations

Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation.

1978 • 693 citations

Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty

1982 • 617 citations

The dilution effect: Nondiagnostic information weakens the implications of diagnostic information

1981 • 603 citations

Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics.

1981 • 598 citations

The Psychology of Deductive Reasoning

1983 • 531 citations

How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions

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Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

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Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processings

1962 • 406 citations

The fallacy of personal validation: a classroom demonstration of gullibility.

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Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation

1976 • 380 citations

Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making

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On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments

1979 • 339 citations

The Framing of Decisions and the Rationality of Choice.

1980 • 331 citations

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1966 • 330 citations

Updating Subjective Probability

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Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.

1982 • 283 citations

Base rates can affect individual predictions.

1980 • 238 citations

The Problem of Inductive Logic.

1970 • 199 citations

When do base rates affect predictions?

1981 • 193 citations

Subjective sensitivity analysis

1979 • 188 citations

The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person

1980 • 187 citations

Decision Analysis for the Manager

1974 • 177 citations

Statistical Methods for Educational and Psychological Research.

1976 • 164 citations

Effects of inadmissible Evidence on the Decisions of Simulated Jurors: A Moral Dilemma

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Probability and the Weighting of Evidence.

1951 • 147 citations

The role of sample size in sample evaluation

1979 • 145 citations

Bayesian Statistics for Social Scientists.

1975 • 133 citations

The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

1981 • 123 citations

Prediction, diagnosis, and causal thinking in forecasting

1982 • 118 citations

Inferences based on nondiagnostic information

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Sequential effects in the revision of subjective probabilities.

1967 • 103 citations

The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes

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Costs and payoffs in perceptual research.

1982 • 92 citations

The language of possibility and probability: Effects of negation on meaning

1981 • 65 citations

Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making

1983 • 56 citations

Sorting out the effects of witness sensitivity and response-criterion placement upon the inferential value of testimonial evidence

1981 • 35 citations

The Quest for Relevance: Quantitative International Relations Research and Government Foreign Affairs Analysis

1974 • 20 citations

Self-serving biases in attribution: A Bayesian analysis.

1982 • 10 citations

Statistical and metastatistical considerations in analysing the desirability of human Bayesian conservatism

1981 • 6 citations