Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

1950 • 4,617 citations

Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases

1982 • 3,614 citations

Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena.

1967 • 2,877 citations

Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

1982 • 1,842 citations

Reasons for confidence.

1980 • 1,378 citations

Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.

1977 • 1,366 citations

Explorations in cognitive dissonance.

1962 • 1,089 citations

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

1973 • 1,004 citations

Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment.

1984 • 552 citations

Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment.

1984 • 446 citations

External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

1982 • 427 citations

Training for calibration

1980 • 375 citations

Probability Forecasting in Meteorology

1984 • 313 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

On Subjective Probability Forecasting

1963 • 216 citations

Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

1983 • 204 citations

Effects of explanation and counterexplanation on the development and use of social theories.

1986 • 154 citations

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

1984 • 135 citations

Probability Forecasting in Meterology

1984 • 124 citations

Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts

1985 • 116 citations

Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions

1982 • 109 citations

Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting

1982 • 58 citations

The role of prior knowledge in explaining hypothetical events

1985 • 57 citations

Changes in the realism and distribution of probability assessments as a function of question type

1982 • 47 citations

The Supra-Additivity of Subjective Probability

1983 • 40 citations

Stylistic Components of Human Judgment: The Generality of Individual Differences

1977 • 10 citations