Influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment: Practice, effort, information, and decision-making

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

1950 • 4,617 citations

The illusion of control.

1975 • 3,645 citations

Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases

1982 • 3,614 citations

Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena.

1967 • 2,877 citations

Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence.

1954 • 2,083 citations

The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.

1979 • 1,922 citations

Linear models in decision making.

1974 • 1,885 citations

Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

1982 • 1,842 citations

Reasons for confidence.

1980 • 1,378 citations

Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.

1977 • 1,366 citations

Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity.

1978 • 1,174 citations

Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?

1977 • 1,075 citations

Conservatism in human information processing

1982 • 1,062 citations

Overconfidence in case-study judgments.

1965 • 1,039 citations

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

1973 • 1,004 citations

Formal representation of human judgment

1968 • 688 citations

Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics.

1981 • 598 citations

In one word: Not from experience

1980 • 472 citations

External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

1982 • 427 citations

Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.

1985 • 387 citations

Training for calibration

1980 • 375 citations

Accuracy and confidence in group judgment

1989 • 357 citations

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

1987 • 232 citations

The effect of choosing on confidence in choice

1990 • 228 citations

Cognitive control.

1972 • 200 citations

Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process?

1983 • 181 citations

Characteristics of the human inference process in complex choice behavior situations

1966 • 143 citations

The Value of Decision Making in a Complex Environment: An Experimental Approach

1981 • 136 citations

Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting

1982 • 58 citations

The role of variable labels in cue probability learning tasks

1986 • 53 citations

Effects of extrinsic incentives on the quality of frequency assessments

1988 • 51 citations

Effort control and judgments

1977 • 26 citations

Empirical comparison of subjective probability elicitation methods*

1988 • 14 citations

Feature cues in probability learning: Data base information and judgment

1986 • 13 citations

The effect of the amount of information and its relevance on memory-based and stimulus-based judgments

1986 • 4 citations