Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1974 • 24,440 citations

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

The Foundations of Statistics.

1955 • 4,262 citations

Reasons for confidence.

1980 • 1,378 citations

Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.

1977 • 1,366 citations

Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?

1977 • 1,075 citations

I knew it would happen

1975 • 695 citations

Studies in Subjective Probability.

1965 • 566 citations

On the psychology of experimental surprises.

1977 • 480 citations

Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

1977 • 465 citations

The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis

1967 • 351 citations

“Good” Probability Assessors

1968 • 332 citations

The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis

1967 • 232 citations

Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty

1980 • 182 citations

Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking

1978 • 173 citations

Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities

1977 • 144 citations

Realism of confidence judgments.

1961 • 117 citations

The ‘true probability’ problem

1970 • 29 citations

Subjective probability estimates and confidence ratings.

1969 • 16 citations