Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography

Reaching a Consensus

1974 • 3,280 citations

The Combination of Forecasts

1969 • 2,340 citations

The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

1982 • 1,444 citations

Time series models

1981 • 1,163 citations

Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations

1988 • 1,063 citations

Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts

1974 • 832 citations

Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results

1983 • 631 citations

Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences.

1970 • 622 citations

Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models

1986 • 597 citations

Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources

1981 • 475 citations

Long Range Forecasting (From Crystal Ball to Computer).

1981 • 380 citations

The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions

1968 • 369 citations

Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach

1977 • 347 citations

A note on aggregating opinions

1978 • 314 citations

Combining Economic Forecasts

1986 • 310 citations

Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources

1985 • 296 citations

Decision Analysis Expert Use

1974 • 296 citations

Sales forecasting practices

1987 • 281 citations

Quality of group judgment.

1977 • 271 citations

Structural change and the combination of forecasts

1987 • 247 citations

Accuracy in forecasting: A survey

1984 • 242 citations

Expectations and Share Prices

1981 • 235 citations

On Subjective Probability Forecasting

1963 • 216 citations

Performance of a composite as a function of the number of judges

1978 • 199 citations

A Bayesian Approach to the Linear Combination of Forecasts

1975 • 186 citations

Marginalization and Linear Opinion Pools

1981 • 183 citations

The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts

1986 • 181 citations

Combining competing forecasts of inflation using a bivariate arch model

1984 • 172 citations

The use of prior information in forecast combination

1990 • 169 citations

Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results

1985 • 163 citations

An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series

1985 • 152 citations

Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results

1971 • 139 citations

Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

1984 • 133 citations

Group Judgments in the Field of Lifted Weights.

1924 • 129 citations

Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones?

1986 • 129 citations

The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

1984 • 127 citations

Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods

1987 • 124 citations

Combining Three Estimates of Gross Domestic Product

1968 • 121 citations

A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

1983 • 120 citations

Combination of Forecasts: An Extension

1987 • 109 citations

The Prediction of Social and Technological Events

1950 • 109 citations

Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts

1986 • 108 citations

Price forecasting and evaluation: An application in agriculture

1983 • 108 citations

Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts

1985 • 101 citations

The Ex Ante Prediction Performance of the St. Louis and FRB-MIT-PENN Econometric Models and Some Results on Composite Predictors

1975 • 98 citations

Some Comments on the Combination of Forecasts

1975 • 94 citations

Does consensus imply accuracy in accounting studies of decision making?

1986 • 88 citations

Linear constraints and the efficiency of combined forecasts

1986 • 87 citations

The use of non‐time series information in sales forecasting: A case study

1988 • 87 citations

Man versus model of man: some conflicting evidence

1976 • 86 citations

Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXII

1973 • 85 citations

Combining Individual Judgments

1985 • 82 citations

The Effect of Discussion upon the Correctness of Group Decisions, when the Factor of Majority Influence is Allowed For

1938 • 79 citations

Quantitative Forecasting—the State of the Art: Econometric Models

1985 • 77 citations

Forecasting livestock prices with individual and composite methods

1981 • 76 citations

Optimal Aggregation of Money Supply Forecasts: Accuracy, Profitability and Market Efficiency

1983 • 76 citations

Composite Forecasting: An Application with U.S. Hog Prices

1981 • 74 citations

Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts

1988 • 74 citations

A Bayes Approach for Combining Correlated Estimates

1965 • 72 citations

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

1967 • 66 citations

Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model

1986 • 65 citations

Obtaining a composite measure from a number of different measures of the same attribute

1936 • 63 citations

Managerial Judgment in Marketing: The Concept of Expertise

1983 • 63 citations

Forecasting Political Risk

1978 • 59 citations

The Combination of Forecasts: a Bayesian Approach

1982 • 59 citations

Methods for Aggregating Opinions

1977 • 59 citations

Almost Linearly-Optimum Combination of Unbiased Estimates

1961 • 59 citations

Business Forecasting Methods

1987 • 57 citations

Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market

1987 • 51 citations

Commentary on the makridakis time series competition (M‐competition)

1983 • 51 citations

Forecasting the Sunspot Cycle

1977 • 50 citations

Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency

1984 • 48 citations

Optimal Price Forecasting Using Survey Data

1983 • 47 citations

On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results

1985 • 47 citations

Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity

1984 • 47 citations

A Note on Group Judgements and Group Size

1962 • 46 citations

A comparison of extrapolation models on yearly sales forecasts

1986 • 45 citations

The validity of judgments as a function of the number of judges.

1939 • 45 citations

The method of minimum variation for the combination of criteria

1936 • 45 citations

Bayesian consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables

1985 • 45 citations

An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts

1986 • 43 citations

An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Combinations

1987 • 42 citations

Linear combination of forecasts: A general Bayesian model

1989 • 41 citations

Combining forecasts to improve earnings per share prediction

1987 • 41 citations

An Experiment in Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

1971 • 40 citations

Combining multiple forecasts given multiple objectives

1982 • 40 citations

The selection and use of linear and bilinear time series models

1986 • 39 citations

Unbiasedness, efficiency and the combination of economic forecasts

1989 • 37 citations

The performance of UK exchange rate forecasters

1988 • 37 citations

Combining algorithms based on robust estimation techniques and co‐integrating restrictions

1989 • 35 citations

Multiple Probability Assessments by Dependent Experts

1985 • 31 citations

Combination of forecasts in electricity demand prediction

1989 • 30 citations

The combining of forecasts using recursive techniques with non‐stationary weights

1989 • 28 citations

Linear constraints, robust‐weighting and efficient composite modeling

1987 • 28 citations

Two Methodologies for the Linear Combination of Forecasts

1981 • 28 citations

Combining price forecasting with hedging of hogs: An evaluation using alternative measures of risk

1985 • 27 citations

A comparison of the accuracy of the Box-Jenkins method with that of automated forecasting methods

1987 • 25 citations

The Synthesis of Predictive Models in Marketing Research

1979 • 24 citations

Note on the reliability and the validity of the group judgment.

1938 • 23 citations

Sales forecasting— using a combination of approaches

1976 • 23 citations

Collinearity and the use of latent root regression for combining GNP forecasts

1989 • 23 citations

The role of time series analysis in the evaluation of econometric models

1985 • 22 citations

FORECAST MODIFICATION BASED UPON RESIDUAL ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF CHECK VOLUME ESTIMATION

1978 • 22 citations

Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation

1989 • 21 citations

Combination of Economic Forecasts: An Odds-Matrix Approach

1988 • 21 citations

Forecasting contemporaneous aggregates and the combination of forecasts: The case of the U.K. monetary aggregates

1985 • 21 citations

A Framework for the Combination of Forecasts

1988 • 20 citations

Group and Individual Judgments for Anticipated Events

1947 • 19 citations

Relative Information Contributions of Consumer Purchase Intentions and Management Judgment as Explanators of Sales

1981 • 19 citations

A new look at forecasting annual corporate earnings in the U.S.A.

1986 • 18 citations

On Bayesian composite forecasting

1987 • 18 citations

Forecasting state retail sales: Econometric vs. time series models

1979 • 18 citations

N‐step combinations of forecasts

1989 • 17 citations

Using Box-Jenkins techniques in sales forecasting

1978 • 16 citations

Extraneous expert information

1985 • 15 citations

Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Methods for Improving Forecast Quality

1986 • 15 citations

The combination of macroeconomic forecasts

1989 • 15 citations

A Method for Pooling Forecasts

1978 • 15 citations

Minimum variance pooling of forecasts at different levels of aggregation

1988 • 14 citations

Composite Earnings Forecasting Efficiency

1987 • 14 citations

An Interactive Forecasting System

1974 • 14 citations

Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Statistical Analysis of Some Interrelationships

1986 • 14 citations

A note on the value of combining short-term earnings forecasts

1987 • 14 citations

SMALL AREA POPULATION FORECASTING: SOME EXPERIENCE WITH BRITISH MODELS

1983 • 13 citations

The Use of Outside Information in Econometric Forecasting

1982 • 13 citations

Clinicians' decisions as a basis for deriving actuarial formulae

1967 • 12 citations

A preference‐based method for forecast combination

1989 • 12 citations

Forecasting the Effects of Television Programming upon Electricity Loads

1983 • 12 citations

An Econometric Analysis of Wilderness Area Use

1976 • 12 citations

Simple rules for combining forecasts: Some empirical results

1987 • 12 citations

Further Observations on Group Judgments of Lifted Weights

1935 • 11 citations

A re-evaluation of the combination and adjustment of forecasts

1987 • 11 citations

A time series forecasting system for the UK money supply

1987 • 11 citations

A Comparison of Some Inflation, Growth and Unemployment Forecasts

1988 • 11 citations

The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting

1983 • 10 citations

Econometric forecasts: evaluation and revision

1983 • 10 citations

Composite model building for foreign exchange rates

1989 • 10 citations

Composite Forecasting: An Integrated Approach and Optimality Reconsidered

1987 • 9 citations

The Stability of Money Demand and Forecasting through Changes in Regimes

1986 • 9 citations

Composition of estimators for decision making

1979 • 8 citations

Efficiency of the independence assumption in the combination of forecasts

1984 • 8 citations

Subjective evaluation of composite econometric policy inputs

1986 • 8 citations

"Combining Forecasts to Predict Property Values for Single-Family Residences": Reply

1978 • 7 citations

Forecasting electric loads with multiple predictors

1985 • 7 citations

Combination of estimates of outstanding claims in non-life insurance

1985 • 7 citations

The President's Economic Report: A Forecasting Record

1983 • 6 citations

Statistical Analysis of Interrelationships between Objective and Subjective Temperature Forecasts

1988 • 6 citations

Experience in combining subjective and quantitative forecasts of open market rates

1989 • 6 citations

"COMPANY FORECAST ACCURACY FOR EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODELS OF EARNINGS-PER-SHARE DATA FOR FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING": A COMMENT

1988 • 5 citations

Outranking Probabilities and the Synthesis of Forecasts

1980 • 5 citations

Bayesian forecast combination and Kalman filtering

1989 • 4 citations

Consensus Time Series Forecasting

1981 • 4 citations

Short-term forecasting : matching techniques to tasks : an integrated framework and empirical investigation

1982 • 4 citations

Linear Combination of Forecasts — A Comment

1981 • 4 citations

Converging Conflicting Research Findings: The Oregon Bottle Bill Case

1980 • 3 citations

Modeling and forecasting seasonal time series of product sales across territories : a comparative study

1978 • 3 citations

A NOTE ON FORECAST MODIFICATION BASED UPON RESIDUAL ANALYSIS

1979 • 2 citations

The prediction performance of the Bonn Monetary Model

1980 • 1 citations