Accuracy in forecasting: A survey

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1974 • 24,440 citations

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

On the psychology of prediction.

1973 • 6,028 citations

A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables

1969 • 5,470 citations

Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts

1990 • 5,189 citations

A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables

1976 • 4,153 citations

Forecasting methods and applications

1993 • 2,530 citations

A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables

2004 • 2,413 citations

The Combination of Forecasts

1969 • 2,340 citations

Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems

1975 • 2,217 citations

Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages

1960 • 1,883 citations

The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

1982 • 1,444 citations

Improved methods of combining forecasts

1984 • 1,119 citations

Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts

1974 • 832 citations

Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results

1983 • 631 citations

Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences.

1970 • 622 citations

Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation

1981 • 616 citations

Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical.

1966 • 606 citations

Forecasting: Methods and Applications

1984 • 557 citations

Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation

1979 • 520 citations

PSYCHOLOGICAL STUDY OF HUMAN JUDGMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

1972 • 479 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 407 citations

The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy

1972 • 397 citations

Forecasting methods for management

1990 • 348 citations

Decomposition of Seasonal Time Series: A Model for the Census X-11 Program

1976 • 261 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 258 citations

THE CONSENSUS AND ACCURACY OF SOME PREDICTIONS OF THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE EARNINGS

1968 • 211 citations

Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys

1975 • 197 citations

Box-Jenkins Methods: An Alternative to Econometric Models

1972 • 173 citations

The exact likelihood function for a mixed autoregressive-moving average process

1974 • 156 citations

Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data

1972 • 151 citations

The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

1984 • 127 citations

Estimation in Linear Regression Models with Disparate Data Points

1980 • 124 citations

A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

1983 • 120 citations

Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model Application to Hawaii Tourists

1975 • 114 citations

A Contribution to the Study of Actuarial and Individual Methods of Prediction

1943 • 113 citations

The Ex Ante Prediction Performance of the St. Louis and FRB-MIT-PENN Econometric Models and Some Results on Composite Predictors

1975 • 98 citations

Sales forecasting methods and accuracy

1975 • 96 citations

Assessing Uncertainty

1974 • 96 citations

An Evaluation of Security Analysts' Forecasts

2016 • 93 citations

Man versus model of man: some conflicting evidence

1976 • 86 citations

Empirical Comparison of Models for Short Range Forecasting

1973 • 81 citations

Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment

1983 • 79 citations

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

1967 • 66 citations

A Feedback Model for Automated Real Estate Assessment

1977 • 66 citations

Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model Application to Hawaii Tourists

1975 • 61 citations

A Comparison of Alternative Econometric Models of Quarterly Investment Behavior

1970 • 60 citations

A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

1972 • 58 citations

The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports

1967 • 57 citations

Adaptive Filtering: An Integrated Autoregressive/Moving Average Filter for Time Series Forecasting

1977 • 53 citations

Effectiveness of sales forecasting methods

1978 • 53 citations

The first-order moving average process

1974 • 52 citations

A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings

1976 • 49 citations

Predictors for the first-order autoregressive process

1980 • 48 citations

Monitoring an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting System

1969 • 44 citations

AN ANALYSIS OF THE USEFULNESS OF DISAGGREGATED ACCOUNTING DATA FOR FORECASTS OF CORPORATE PERFORMANCE*

1980 • 41 citations

Combining multiple forecasts given multiple objectives

1982 • 40 citations

Short‐run macroeconomic forecasting: The OECD performance

1983 • 38 citations

Short-term Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment

1979 • 38 citations

The Predictive Value of Interim Reports for Improving Forecasts of Future Quarterly Earnings

2006 • 36 citations

A Comparison of Short and Medium Range Statistical Forecasting Methods

1966 • 32 citations

Forecasting methods for management

1981 • 32 citations

Interactive Forecasting: Univariate and Multivariate Methods.

1979 • 31 citations

Effectiveness of Earnings Per Share Forecasts

1974 • 30 citations

Incorporating Judgments in Sales Forecasts: Application of the Delphi Method at American Hoist & Derrick

1977 • 24 citations

Sales Forecasting Practices of Large U.S. Industrial Firms

1977 • 24 citations

Sales forecasting— using a combination of approaches

1976 • 23 citations

FORECAST MODIFICATION BASED UPON RESIDUAL ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF CHECK VOLUME ESTIMATION

1978 • 22 citations

Forecasting state retail sales: Econometric vs. time series models

1979 • 18 citations

If we cannot forecast how can we plan?

1981 • 18 citations

Using Box-Jenkins techniques in sales forecasting

1978 • 16 citations

A General Purpose Forecast Simulator

1965 • 16 citations

Long Range Forecasting--From Crystal Ball to Computer.

1979 • 15 citations

SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT‐TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

1981 • 15 citations

Practical Aspects of Forecasting

1976 • 14 citations

The Less Popular Stocks versus the Most Popular Stocks

1965 • 14 citations

Public reporting of corporate financial forecasts

1974 • 12 citations

Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul and Tversky, Amos (eds), New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982. Price: £25/45 (Hardback), £9.95/$15 (Paperback). Pages: 555

1984 • 10 citations

A comparison of short-term adaptive forecasting methods

1981 • 10 citations

SELF ADAPTIVE FORECASTING RECONSIDERED

1971 • 10 citations

Sales Forecasting Models: A Diagnostic Approach

1976 • 5 citations

Business forecasting: the good news and the bad

1980 • 5 citations

On the information provided by forecasting models

1980 • 4 citations

Modeling and forecasting seasonal time series of product sales across territories : a comparative study

1978 • 3 citations

A comparison of commodity price forecasting by Box-Jenkins and regression-based techniques

1979 • 2 citations

The accuracy and information content of earnings per share forecast reports by firms

1976 • 1 citations

Gardenfors' “I” value: A comment on the measurement of the relative accuracy of sales forecasting models

1984 • 1 citations