Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review

Work and motivation

1964 • 9,479 citations

Personality and Assessment

1968 • 4,495 citations

Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1983 • 3,931 citations

Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

1982 • 1,842 citations

BOUNDED RATIONALITY, AMBIGUITY, AND THE ENGINEERING OF CHOICE

1988 • 1,647 citations

Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice

1978 • 1,434 citations

Reasons for confidence.

1980 • 1,378 citations

Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

1971 • 1,100 citations

Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?

1977 • 1,075 citations

Personality and assessment

1969 • 1,051 citations

A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies

1978 • 888 citations

Contingent decision behavior.

1982 • 871 citations

A progress report on the training of probability assessors

1982 • 837 citations

Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

1975 • 670 citations

Knowledge and Cognition

1975 • 483 citations

Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

1977 • 465 citations

Interactional Psychology and Personality

1976 • 409 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 407 citations

Long Range Forecasting (From Crystal Ball to Computer).

1981 • 380 citations

Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

1977 • 375 citations

State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review

1983 • 349 citations

Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting.

1981 • 345 citations

Behavior as a function of the situation.

1983 • 331 citations

Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of Judgment and Choice

1981 • 296 citations

Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

1971 • 286 citations

The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility

1979 • 277 citations

Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

1972 • 255 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting.

1981 • 227 citations

Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs

1977 • 221 citations

Long-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer

1986 • 204 citations

The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions

1967 • 192 citations

Experiments in the laboratory and the real world

1973 • 165 citations

Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes

1983 • 157 citations

Problem solving strategies: A selection mechanism, some implications, and some data

1978 • 141 citations

On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets

1976 • 113 citations

Calibration of auditors' probabilistic judgments: Some empirical evidence

1982 • 109 citations

Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment

1984 • 107 citations

Internal consistency of subjective probabilities.

1965 • 63 citations

Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncertainty.

1974 • 57 citations

Accuracy and Consistency in the Revision of Subjective Probabilities

1966 • 55 citations

Reliability of Subjective Evaluations in a High Incentive Situation

1974 • 54 citations

A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS

1974 • 52 citations

Aided and unaided decision making: Improving intuitive judgement

1982 • 51 citations

The assessment of subjective probability distributions: A training experiment

1973 • 49 citations

Utility and decision strategies: A second look at the rational decision maker

1983 • 44 citations

Judgemental forecasting

1987 • 39 citations

Credible Interval Temperature Forecasts

1972 • 39 citations

The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions

1967 • 38 citations

Effects of amount of information on predictions of uncertain quantities

1986 • 37 citations

A Theoretical Perspective on Heuristics and Biases in Probabilistic Thinking

1983 • 34 citations

Contextual effects on the calibration of probabilistic judgments.

1985 • 33 citations

Stability and coherence of health experts' upper and lower subjective probabilities about dose—response functions

1983 • 31 citations

The ‘true probability’ problem

1970 • 29 citations

The effect of learning on the assessment of subjective probability distributions

1971 • 19 citations

An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting

1973 • 18 citations

Intrasession decrements in the performance of the classically conditioned eyelid reflex.

1965 • 14 citations

Toward an interactional psychology: Models from achievement motivation research¹

1981 • 14 citations

The effects of context on the selection of decision strategies for the cost variance investigation problem

1984 • 13 citations

A note comparing three measures of subjective probability, their validity and reliability

1974 • 9 citations

A comparison of encoding techniques

1983 • 5 citations

Deleted Work

1955 • 0 citations