Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

1973 • 9,346 citations

The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices

1965 • 8,575 citations

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs.

1994 • 8,503 citations

On the psychology of prediction.

1973 • 6,028 citations

Motivation reconsidered: The concept of competence.

1963 • 4,784 citations

THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945-1964

1968 • 4,463 citations

Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness

1972 • 4,401 citations

The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process

1977 • 3,905 citations

Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment

1978 • 3,841 citations

The illusion of control.

1975 • 3,645 citations

Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice.

1972 • 3,400 citations

Belief in the law of small numbers.

1971 • 3,177 citations

EFFECTS OF GROUP PRESSURE UPON THE MODIFICATION AND DISTORTION OF JUDGMENTS

1961 • 2,400 citations

Intransitivity of preferences.

1969 • 2,223 citations

On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task

1960 • 2,013 citations

Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: An information search and protocol analysis

1976 • 2,004 citations

Reforms as experiments.

1969 • 1,918 citations

Linear models in decision making.

1974 • 1,885 citations

Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment

1971 • 1,820 citations

Behavioral Decision Theory

1977 • 1,727 citations

Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of Judgement and Choice

1981 • 1,684 citations

BOUNDED RATIONALITY, AMBIGUITY, AND THE ENGINEERING OF CHOICE

1988 • 1,647 citations

Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions.

1971 • 1,554 citations

Judged frequency of lethal events.

1978 • 1,421 citations

Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.

1977 • 1,366 citations

Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity.

1978 • 1,174 citations

Leading questions and the eyewitness report

1975 • 1,137 citations

The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments

1980 • 1,132 citations

Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon

2006 • 1,121 citations

Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures

1982 • 1,113 citations

Conservatism in human information processing

1982 • 1,062 citations

Overconfidence in case-study judgments.

1965 • 1,039 citations

Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs.

1969 • 1,016 citations

Selective Perception: A Note on the Departmental Identifications of Executives

1958 • 1,004 citations

Hindsight-foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

1974 • 836 citations

The harassed decision maker: Time pressures, distractions, and the use of evidence.

1974 • 780 citations

Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?

1933 • 717 citations

Organismic achievement and environmental probability.

1943 • 698 citations

Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation.

1978 • 693 citations

Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

1975 • 670 citations

Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decision.

1983 • 625 citations

Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences.

1970 • 622 citations

Attribution and the psychology of prediction.

1975 • 615 citations

Reasoning in humans. II. The solution of a problem and its appearance in consciousness.

1931 • 607 citations

ON THE PERCEPTION OF INCONGRUITY: A PARADIGM

1949 • 607 citations

Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical.

1966 • 606 citations

Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics.

1981 • 598 citations

Judgment of contingency between responses and outcomes.

1965 • 578 citations

A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making.

1971 • 574 citations

Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas.

1973 • 574 citations

If planning is everything, maybe it's nothing

1973 • 551 citations

Reconstructing the past: Some cognitive consequences of person perception.

1978 • 547 citations

Human problem solving: The state of the theory in 1970.

1971 • 538 citations

The Differential Impact of Abstract vs. Concrete Information on Decisions¹

1977 • 525 citations

Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation

1979 • 520 citations

Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

1977 • 465 citations

THE SUPERIORITY OF ANALYST FORECASTS AS MEASURES OF EXPECTATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM EARNINGS

1978 • 462 citations

Expert measurement and mechanical combination

1972 • 416 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 407 citations

Use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models as a function of task and amount of information

1971 • 401 citations

Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Decision Making

1963 • 397 citations

Perceived informativeness of facts.

1977 • 390 citations

Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation

1976 • 380 citations

THE CONCEPT OF CORRELATION IN ADULTS

1963 • 370 citations

On the subjective probability of compound events

1973 • 335 citations

Ego involvement and attributions for success and failure.

1976 • 332 citations

Research in Management Information Systems: The Minnesota Experiments

1977 • 331 citations

The Value of Unit Price Information

1977 • 329 citations

The display of information and the judgment of contingency.

1965 • 326 citations

The cognitive side of probability learning.

1976 • 319 citations

Likeness and Likelihood in Everyday Thought: Magical Thinking in Judgments About Personality [and Comments and Reply]

1977 • 313 citations

Probability learning and a negative recency effect in the serial anticipation of alternative symbols.

1951 • 307 citations

Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative

1982 • 288 citations

Social judgment theory and the analysis of interpersonal conflict.

1976 • 284 citations

From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculations-and Some Evidence- About Man's Ability to Process Information

1972 • 280 citations

Choice between equally valued alternatives.

1975 • 270 citations

A Concept of Corporate Planning.

1971 • 263 citations

Where long-range planning pays off Findings of a survey of formal, informal planners

1970 • 249 citations

Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer

1979 • 246 citations

Decision making in the employment interview

1964 • 244 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making

1982 • 229 citations

Does planning pay? The effect of planning on success of acquisitions in American firms

1970 • 228 citations

Planning for Existing Markets: Perceptions of Executives and Financial Performance

1975 • 217 citations

Decision processes, rationality and adjustment to natural hazards

1974 • 215 citations

Box-Jenkins Seasonal Forecasting: Problems in a Case-Study

1973 • 214 citations

THE CONSENSUS AND ACCURACY OF SOME PREDICTIONS OF THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE EARNINGS

1968 • 211 citations

Long range planning and organizational performance

1975 • 200 citations

The Effects of Strategic Planning on Common Stock Returns.

1980 • 197 citations

The Impact of Comprehensive Planning on Financial Performance.

1979 • 176 citations

Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal

1972 • 174 citations

Box-Jenkins Methods: An Alternative to Econometric Models

1972 • 173 citations

Effect of stimulus inconsistency and discounting instructions in personality impression formation.

1965 • 167 citations

The pond-and-duckweed problem; Three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth

1979 • 160 citations

Portfolio Selection: A Simulation of Trust Investment.

1963 • 155 citations

A case of radical probability estimation.

1973 • 152 citations

The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share

1975 • 151 citations

Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data

1972 • 151 citations

The effects of three potential aids for making strategic decisions on prediction accuracy

1978 • 150 citations

The importance of perceived control: fact or fantasy?

1977 • 148 citations

THE ERROR OF ESTIMATE OF THE BLOOD CELL COUNT AS MADE WITH THE HEMOCYTOMETER

1939 • 138 citations

Planning perceptions and planning results

1980 • 136 citations

Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs

1979 • 132 citations

The Predictive Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States

1972 • 117 citations

Stock Market Forecasting

1944 • 106 citations

Response bias explanation of conservative human inference.

1970 • 102 citations

The Ex Ante Prediction Performance of the St. Louis and FRB-MIT-PENN Econometric Models and Some Results on Composite Predictors

1975 • 98 citations

The Role of Expectations in Business Decision Making

1958 • 92 citations

Illusory correlation and subjective judgment.

1972 • 91 citations

Extensions of Bowman's Theory on Managerial Decision-Making

1969 • 87 citations

Man versus model of man: some conflicting evidence

1976 • 86 citations

Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact

1978 • 86 citations

Empirical Comparison of Models for Short Range Forecasting

1973 • 81 citations

Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability

1966 • 78 citations

The concept of competence.

1971 • 76 citations

Bootstrapping the security analyst.

1978 • 65 citations

The best guess hypothesis in multistage inference

1973 • 63 citations

Appreciation of conditional probabilities in binary sequences

1970 • 63 citations

The Predictive Performance of Econometric Models of Quarterly Investment Behavior

1970 • 60 citations

Methods for Aggregating Opinions

1977 • 59 citations

Toward understanding and improving decisions

1982 • 59 citations

A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

1972 • 58 citations

Executives' Forecasts of Earnings per Share versus Forecasts of Naive Models

1972 • 57 citations

The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports

1967 • 57 citations

Man versus model of man: just how conflicting is that evidence?

1976 • 52 citations

A CONFIRMATION OF THE INERTIAL‐ψ EFFECT IN SEQUENTIAL CHOICE AND DECISION

1972 • 52 citations

A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings

1976 • 49 citations

Linking Environmental Models with Models of Human Judgment: A Symmetrical Decision Aid

1977 • 48 citations

Analysts' Performance and the Accuracy of Corporate Earnings Forecasts

1976 • 43 citations

Evaluation of Compound Probabilities in Sequential Choice

1971 • 39 citations

Corporate Planning Practices in Japanese Multinationals.

1978 • 38 citations

Organised planning in major U.S. companies

1969 • 38 citations

Professional socialization in a surgical specialty: Acquiring medical judgment

1975 • 37 citations

Evaluation of Economic Forecasts

1930 • 36 citations

Testing Bowman's Managerial Coefficient Theory Using a Competitive Gaming Environment

1978 • 36 citations

The Shaky Foundations of Capital Budgeting

1976 • 34 citations

An Experimental Comparison of the Effectiveness of Three Planning Methods

1977 • 33 citations

The Structure of Executive Decisions and Decision Times

1970 • 33 citations

STATISTICAL VERSUS SALES FORCE–EXECUTIVE OPINION SHORT RANGE FORECASTS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS CASE STUDY

1976 • 33 citations

Effects of some probability displays on choices

1973 • 29 citations

The effect of outcome desirability on information required for decisions

1967 • 28 citations

Improving the effectiveness of corporate planning

1978 • 24 citations

Human Factors in Electronics

1964 • 24 citations

A response bias explanation of conservative human inference

1969 • 23 citations

Environmental Structure and Programmed Decision Effectiveness

1972 • 21 citations

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of variations in the form and parameters of a multiattribute utility model: A survey

1978 • 20 citations

Subjective Probabilities and Short-Term Economic Forecasts: An Empirical Investigation

1977 • 18 citations

Intuitive Prediction of Growth

1978 • 16 citations

The Less Popular Stocks versus the Most Popular Stocks

1965 • 14 citations

Consumer Cognitive Styles: Review and Implications for Marketers

1978 • 14 citations

The Recent Performance of Anticipation Surveys and Econometric Model Projections of Investment Spending in the United States

1976 • 7 citations

Government economic planning in the United Kingdom

1978 • 4 citations

Deleted Work

1955 • 0 citations