Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making

Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty.

1969 • 1,953 citations

Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment

1971 • 1,820 citations

Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation.

1978 • 693 citations

Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

1975 • 670 citations

Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty

1982 • 617 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 407 citations

Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

1977 • 375 citations

The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis

1967 • 351 citations

Long-Range Forecasting.

1979 • 219 citations

An elementary cross-impact model

1971 • 100 citations

Technological Forecasting—An Overview

1980 • 53 citations

Bayesian Decision Models for System Engineering

1965 • 40 citations

A sequential approach to cross-impact analysis

1978 • 34 citations

An Approach for Long Term Forecasting with an Application to Solar Electric Energy

1979 • 25 citations

'Irrationality' of managerial judgments: Implications for information systems

1976 • 15 citations

Accounting for the man-information interface in management information systems

1973 • 6 citations