What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?

Estimating the Dimension of a Model

1978 • 43,634 citations

A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle

1989 • 9,360 citations

Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics

1994 • 775 citations

An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching

1998 • 421 citations

Scoring the Leading Indicators

1989 • 369 citations

Forecasting Output with the Composite Leading Index: A Real-Time Analysis

1991 • 333 citations

Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth

1994 • 253 citations

A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle

1990 • 244 citations

Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns

1982 • 215 citations

Business-Cycle Analysis With a Markov-Switching Model

1993 • 189 citations

Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach

1991 • 141 citations

Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle

1994 • 126 citations

Specification testing in dynamic models

2008 • 126 citations

Predicting the Turning Points of a Time Series

1979 • 122 citations

Statistical indicators of cyclical revivals

1938 • 121 citations

A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime

1991 • 109 citations

Further Evidence on Business Cycle Duration Dependence

2020 • 102 citations

Predicting the Turning Points of Business and Economic Time Series

1987 • 86 citations

The Likelihood Test Under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Trend Model of GNP

1991 • 80 citations

On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points

1973 • 75 citations

Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: An ex ante analysis

1991 • 58 citations

Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle

1993 • 28 citations

A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching

1993 • 13 citations

Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP

1995 • 1 citations