Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Predictions

The Elements of Statistical Learning

2001 • 24,302 citations

Categorical Data Analysis

1991 • 9,374 citations

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

1996 • 7,738 citations

Validation of a combined comorbidity index

1994 • 6,000 citations

VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

1950 • 4,617 citations

Categorical Data Analysis.

1991 • 3,060 citations

Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Likelihood Ratio Tests under Nonstandard Conditions

1987 • 2,429 citations

Comparing Predictive Accuracy

1995 • 2,414 citations

Evaluating trauma care: the TRISS method. Trauma Score and the Injury Severity Score.

1987 • 1,978 citations

The Analysis of Cross-Classified Categorical Data

1979 • 1,941 citations

Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine

2011 • 1,772 citations

Evaluating Trauma Care

1987 • 1,673 citations

Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine

2002 • 1,090 citations

The Analysis of Cross-Classified Categorical Data.

1979 • 909 citations

A General Framework for Forecast Verification

1987 • 672 citations

Quantitative sampling using an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer 1. Techniques of data interpretation and error analysis

2003 • 662 citations

The Analysis of Cross-Classified Categorical Data

1980 • 608 citations

Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you

2002 • 451 citations

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts

1999 • 364 citations

Preface

1995 • 316 citations

Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

1996 • 229 citations

Statistical Problems in ESP Research

1978 • 203 citations

Methods for Studying Coincidences

1989 • 201 citations

The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

1996 • 184 citations

A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors

1989 • 181 citations

Screening Mammograms by Community Radiologists: Variability in False-Positive Rates

2002 • 158 citations

A Permutation Test to Compare Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves

2000 • 155 citations

A Simple Model

1969 • 144 citations

Attitudes, Knowledge, and Risk Perceptions of Women With Breast and/or Ovarian Cancer Considering Testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2

1999 • 141 citations

A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts

2001 • 135 citations

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality

1991 • 127 citations

Comparison of the Injury Severity Score and ICD-9 Diagnosis Codes as Predictors of Outcome in Injury

1997 • 118 citations

TRISS: Does It Get Better than This?

2004 • 107 citations

Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules

1994 • 94 citations

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasters

1971 • 93 citations

The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-1993

1994 • 93 citations

Benefits and Risks of Screening Mammography for Women in Their Forties: a Statistical Appraisal

1998 • 90 citations

Increased patient concern after false-positive mammograms

2001 • 87 citations

The Experience of Waiting for Diagnosis After an Abnormal Mammogram

1999 • 78 citations

On the Relationship between the Accuracy and Value of Forecasts in the Cost–Loss Ratio Situation

1987 • 69 citations

Long-term prognosis after peri-operative cardiac complications

1994 • 68 citations

Forecast verification

1997 • 61 citations

Hedging and Skill Scores for Probability Forecasts

1973 • 59 citations

Discrete Multivariate Analyses: Theory and Practice

1977 • 51 citations

Discrete subjective probabilities and decision analysis: Elicitation, calibration and combination.

1994 • 47 citations

Bayesian Correlation Score: A Utilitarian Measure of Forecast Skill

1992 • 43 citations

Representing Serial Correlation of Meteorological Events and Forecasts in Dynamic Decision–Analytic Models

1991 • 40 citations

The Analysis of Sequential Experiments with Feedback to Subjects

1981 • 39 citations

Trauma score versus revised trauma score in TRISS to predict outcome in children with blunt trauma

1989 • 38 citations

Screening Mammography Behavior after a False Positive Mammogram

1998 • 31 citations

Modelling the impact of detecting and treating ductal carcinoma in situ in a breast screening programme

2004 • 31 citations

Dynamic Cost-Loss Ratio Decision-making Model with an Autocorrelated Climate Variable

1993 • 29 citations

On Reducing Probability Forecasts to Yes/No Forecasts

1979 • 26 citations

Skill in real‐time solar wind shock forecasts

2003 • 24 citations

Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test

1993 • 23 citations

Subjective Probability.

1995 • 18 citations

A Coherent Method of Stratification within a General Framework for Forecast Verification

1995 • 16 citations

Comparison of Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: The Sufficiency Relation

1990 • 9 citations

Profile-Likelihood Inference for Highly Accurate Diagnostic Tests

2002 • 9 citations

Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations

2006 • 7 citations

Evaluating Whether a Binary Decision Rule Operates Better Than Chance

1999 • 6 citations

Comparing Two Probability Appraisers

1979 • 6 citations

A Simple Model of Over-forecasting

1988 • 4 citations

Assessing the Value of Probability Forecasts

1990 • 3 citations

Comparing Two Probability Appraisers

1979 • 2 citations