Skill in real‐time solar wind shock forecasts

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

1996 • 7,738 citations

Theoretical Statistics

1974 • 2,786 citations

Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

1996 • 229 citations

A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors

1989 • 181 citations

Improvements to the HAF solar wind model for space weather predictions

2001 • 170 citations

Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

2003 • 158 citations

MHD study of temporal and spatial evolution of simulated interplanetary shocks in the ecliptic plane within 1 AU

1990 • 142 citations

A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts

2001 • 135 citations

A simplified model for timing the arrival of solar flare‐initiated shocks

1985 • 123 citations

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasters

1971 • 93 citations

Dynamical models of coronal transients and interplanetary disturbances

1984 • 76 citations

Hedging and Skill Scores for Probability Forecasts

1973 • 59 citations

Performance of interplanetary shock prediction models: STOA and ISPM

2000 • 53 citations

Bayesian Correlation Score: A Utilitarian Measure of Forecast Skill

1992 • 43 citations

Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March – 21 April 2001

2002 • 30 citations

On Reducing Probability Forecasts to Yes/No Forecasts

1979 • 26 citations

From Sun to Earth: Multiscale MHD Simulations of Space Weather

2011 • 25 citations

a Simplified Technique for Estimating the Arrival Time of Solar Flare - Initiated Shocks

1984 • 19 citations

MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere: Comparison with Observations

2011 • 16 citations

CMEs and Space Weather

2011 • 15 citations

Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective

2000 • 12 citations

The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI): A new tool for space weather

2002 • 7 citations