Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

1975 • 23,866 citations

The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices

1965 • 8,575 citations

An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers

1968 • 6,381 citations

THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945-1964

1968 • 4,463 citations

Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases

1982 • 3,614 citations

Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

1982 • 1,842 citations

The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964

1968 • 1,763 citations

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

1973 • 1,004 citations

Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

1977 • 465 citations

External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

1982 • 427 citations

Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions

1975 • 407 citations

Training for calibration

1980 • 375 citations

Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

1972 • 255 citations

Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors

1969 • 253 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts

1982 • 237 citations

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

1987 • 232 citations

The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction.

1962 • 230 citations

Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States

1989 • 210 citations

Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

1991 • 166 citations

Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation

1972 • 121 citations

Realism of confidence judgments.

1961 • 117 citations

Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment

1984 • 107 citations

The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters

1992 • 86 citations

Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts

1983 • 66 citations

Expert judgment about uncertainty: Bayesian decision making in realistic settings

1975 • 64 citations

Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting

1982 • 58 citations

A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS

1974 • 52 citations

The assessment of subjective probability distributions: A training experiment

1973 • 49 citations

Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors

1969 • 47 citations

Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part II.N-State Situation

1972 • 46 citations

Design Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments

1985 • 43 citations

Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition

1988 • 42 citations

Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor

1986 • 40 citations

Training in Confidence-Judgments

1958 • 27 citations

Design Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments

1985 • 27 citations

The Use of Probabilities in Subjective Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Some Experimental Results

1985 • 9 citations

Scoring Rules for Subjective Assessments

1975 • 8 citations