Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

The Federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission

1992 • 2,837 citations

Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis

1980 • 2,192 citations

What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?

2005 • 2,126 citations

Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?

1998 • 1,908 citations

Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

1991 • 1,822 citations

Monetary Policy Rules

1999 • 1,724 citations

Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market

2001 • 1,699 citations

The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates

1987 • 1,646 citations

Bond Risk Premia

2005 • 1,494 citations

Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement

1992 • 1,304 citations

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

1989 • 1,150 citations

The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models

2005 • 943 citations

The impact of monetary policy on asset prices

2004 • 901 citations

Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia

2002 • 791 citations

Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a Var Make Sense?

1998 • 654 citations

Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve

2005 • 577 citations

The Fed and Interest Rates—A High-Frequency Identification

2002 • 439 citations

Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

2008 • 360 citations

Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

2007 • 358 citations

Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory

1998 • 317 citations

The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy

1996 • 289 citations

The information in forward rates

1988 • 282 citations

Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data

2004 • 246 citations

Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets

2003 • 147 citations

The Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models

2003 • 114 citations

What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?

2004 • 89 citations

On the Derivation of Monetary Policy Shocks: Should We Throw the VAR out with the Bath Water?

2000 • 73 citations

Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy From Futures Rates

2004 • 69 citations

Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a Var Make Sense? A Reply to Christopher A. Sims

1998 • 65 citations

Real-Time Taylor Rules and the Federal Funds Futures Market

1998 • 61 citations

Identifying VARs Based on High Frequency Futures Data

2002 • 49 citations

Market-based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

2002 • 27 citations

Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy from Futures Rates

2003 • 17 citations

Estimates of the Term Premium on Near-dated Federal Funds Futures Contracts

2003 • 13 citations