What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?

A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle

1989 • 9,360 citations

Discretion versus policy rules in practice

1993 • 9,049 citations

Comparing Predictive Accuracy

1995 • 3,779 citations

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

1988 • 3,689 citations

Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves

1987 • 2,902 citations

The Federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission

1992 • 2,837 citations

A YIELD‐FACTOR MODEL OF INTEREST RATES

1996 • 2,625 citations

Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing

1986 • 2,387 citations

Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?

1998 • 1,908 citations

Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models

2000 • 1,864 citations

Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

1991 • 1,822 citations

A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables

2003 • 1,742 citations

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

1991 • 1,655 citations

The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates

1987 • 1,646 citations

Predictive regressions

1999 • 1,589 citations

Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators

1998 • 1,206 citations

Forecasting Economic Time Series

1979 • 1,069 citations

Regime Switches in Interest Rates

2002 • 859 citations

Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure

2002 • 823 citations

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Multifactor Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

1993 • 608 citations

Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve

2005 • 577 citations

Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices

1994 • 563 citations

The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank

1997 • 544 citations

Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns

1990 • 464 citations

Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets

1989 • 427 citations

International term structures and real economic growth

1994 • 365 citations

Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory

1998 • 317 citations

Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy

1991 • 233 citations

Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions

1997 • 200 citations

The Term Structure and World Economic Growth

1991 • 193 citations

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions

1996 • 189 citations

An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy

1988 • 150 citations

The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation

2003 • 137 citations

A Joint Econometric Model of Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics

2003 • 121 citations

VAR forecasting under misspecification

2004 • 116 citations

The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth

1998 • 109 citations

The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States

2003 • 93 citations

Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence

1998 • 92 citations

Term Structure Forecasts Economic Growth

1993 • 85 citations

Explorations Into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns

1994 • 83 citations

Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship

1995 • 82 citations

A re-examination of the predictability of the yield spread for real economic activity *

1999 • 53 citations

Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts

2003 • 37 citations

Monetary Policy and the Slope Factors in Empirical Term Structure Estimations

2001 • 21 citations

Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARs

2002 • 17 citations

Expectations Hypotheses Tests

2000 • 15 citations

Does the term structure forecast consumption growth

2002 • 4 citations