The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting

Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes.

1977 • 10,326 citations

On the psychology of prediction.

1973 • 6,028 citations

On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task

1960 • 2,013 citations

Superstition in the pigeon.

1948 • 1,383 citations

Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity.

1978 • 1,174 citations

The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses

1965 • 1,092 citations

Publication prejudices: An experimental study of confirmatory bias in the peer review system

1977 • 1,033 citations

Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs.

1969 • 1,016 citations

Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task.

1975 • 761 citations

Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?

1933 • 717 citations

Surveillance and trust1

1958 • 353 citations

The ability to judge people.

1955 • 329 citations

A note on aggregating opinions

1978 • 314 citations

Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer

1979 • 246 citations

Decision making in the employment interview

1964 • 244 citations

Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results

1971 • 139 citations

Psychology of the scientist: An analysis of problem-solving bias

1977 • 118 citations

The Prediction of Social and Technological Events

1950 • 109 citations

Stock Market Forecasting

1944 • 106 citations

Prediction in Psychiatry: An Example of Misplaced Confidence in Experts

1978 • 87 citations

Actuarial, naive clinical, and sophisticated clinical prediction of pathology from figure drawings.

1967 • 32 citations

Judging psychopathology from paintings.

1967 • 31 citations

The accuracy of technological forecasts, 1890–1940

1976 • 26 citations

Forecasting Bed Needs and Recommending Facilities Plans for Community Hospitals

1979 • 19 citations

An Appraisal of American Business Forecasts.

1930 • 13 citations

World views and crystal balls

1976 • 10 citations

Illusory correlation and mediated association: A finding.

1975 • 8 citations

Limitations of the Expert

1979 • 3 citations