The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix

1987 • 15,268 citations

Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

1997 • 7,105 citations

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

1991 • 5,040 citations

Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series

1982 • 4,673 citations

Comparing Predictive Accuracy

1995 • 3,779 citations

Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series

1999 • 2,825 citations

A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’

1981 • 2,374 citations

Monetary Policy Rules

1999 • 1,724 citations

Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability

1996 • 1,471 citations

Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models

2001 • 1,212 citations

Forecasting inflation

1999 • 1,209 citations

Detrending, stylized facts and the business cycle

1993 • 1,209 citations

Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research

1995 • 896 citations

The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time

2002 • 873 citations

Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends

1986 • 873 citations

A real-time data set for macroeconomists

2001 • 780 citations

The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity

1987 • 744 citations

Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?

2001 • 726 citations

The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy

1997 • 702 citations

The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances

1988 • 659 citations

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

1996 • 575 citations

Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series

1985 • 561 citations

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

1998 • 539 citations

Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?

2003 • 536 citations

The quest for prosperity without inflation

2003 • 517 citations

Presentations of faithful d.g. near-rings

1980 • 498 citations

Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable

1994 • 395 citations

Evaluating policy regimes : new research in empirical macroeconomics

1993 • 320 citations

Reducing Inflation

1997 • 312 citations

Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series

1985 • 300 citations

General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series

2003 • 291 citations

How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

1996 • 290 citations

The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting

2003 • 232 citations

Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?

2001 • 221 citations

Tests for Forecast Encompassing

1998 • 202 citations

Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable

1994 • 158 citations

The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence

2006 • 141 citations

Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada

1997 • 130 citations

In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

2002 • 101 citations

The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

1999 • 92 citations

Low frequency filtering and real business cycles

1993 • 91 citations

When Can We Forecast Inflation

2002 • 82 citations

Evaluating Long-Horizon Forecasts

2002 • 68 citations

Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability and Inflation: A View from the Trenches

2001 • 65 citations

Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy

2003 • 64 citations

Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle

2005 • 56 citations

Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research

1999 • 30 citations

The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

1999 • 24 citations

Evaluating long-horizon forecasts

2001 • 24 citations

Filtering for Current Analysis

2002 • 21 citations

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

2002 • 20 citations

Why Is It So Hard To Measure the Current Output Gap

1995 • 19 citations

Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap

1995 • 6 citations